<p class="text-align-justify">Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn in February.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But considering the fact that surging energy prices will be a factor starting from the March report, this latest one for February is not relevant whatsoever anymore. The euro area imports roughly 60% of its energy requirements and as such, we will observe a big terms-of-trade shock in the data next month.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For some context, the trade balance in the euro area typically keeps at a surplus but ran a massive deficit for a prolonged period of time in during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And this looks set to be a repeat of that.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The massive widening in the energy deficit can be a big problem, especially if oil and gas prices keep higher for a sustained period of time. That will in turn weigh more heavily on the economic performance in the euro area region.</p><p class="text-align-justify">So while the energy deficit widening is the main thing to watch out, there could be a secondary impact on manufacturing too. When energy prices surge higher, it will eventually see energy-intensive production become too expensive. And that will also narrow the trade surplus from the chemicals sector for example.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For some backdrop, chemicals and related products have always been producing the biggest trade surplus margin for the region. In February, it recorded a surplus of €16.2 billion. Trouble, trouble.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian and Eurozone trade balances which are not going to change anything for the ECB and won't be market-moving. </p><p>The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations. The news we've been getting have been mostly positive and just yesterday Israel and Lebanon began a 10-day ceasefire to allow for negotiations. Trump delivered some upbeat remarks yesterday and mentioned that a US-Iran meeting could happen over the weekend. </p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, the only highlight is Fed's Waller speech. He's been a "leading indicator" for Fed policy since 2021 and just recently started to put more emphasis on inflation given the energy shock and the resilient labour market. He still doesn't see the need for a rate hike and prefers to wait before restarting rate cuts later this year. </p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - BoE's Bailey (hawkish - voter)</li><li>18:00 GMT/14:00 ET - Fed's Waller (dovish - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, "we are not there yet"</li><li>However, it is definitely under consideration</li><li>We should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some time</li><li>If Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices</li><li>We estimate it will take approximately two years for overall oil production to reach pre-war levels again</li><li>The push for use of electric vehicles will increase faster than previously anticipated</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">It looks like Japan will have to act in an isolated manner to push for their next round of emergency oil reserves release. With prices looking much calmer in the past week or so, you can bet that the US and Trump won't have as much appetite to force the issue this time around.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As for the other comments, Birol is pretty much just stating the obvious for the most part. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it doesn't mean that supply issues will immediately get resolved. As mentioned before, it will be a slow trickle at best and it will take many more months for key energy facilities to run back at full capacity.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other words, it will take a long time before things actually normalise and that is assuming the war comes to an end and the strait is open for business in a meaningful way.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And if not, the market optimism we're seeing here could really run into big trouble down the road with there being no change to the status quo on the Strait of Hormuz especially.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Sure, more positive talks and a deal of sorts may look play well on the optics. But when the hard data hits, nothing will change for markets and the global economy until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. That's the main thing still.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/china-signals-loose-policy-boosts-fiscal-and-tech-investment-push-20260417/">China signals loose policy, boosts fiscal and tech investment push</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/icymi-iea-warns-energy-shock-risks-recession-as-hormuz-disruption-tightens-supply-20260417/">ICYMI: IEA warns Europe may have ~6 weeks of jet fuel</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/india-icymi-rbi-fx-intervention-intensifies-curbs-refiners-dollar-buying-20260417/">India ICYMI: RBI FX intervention intensifies, curbs refiners’ dollar buying</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/nz-pm-luxon-rejects-leadership-challenge-as-political-pressure-builds-watch-the-kiwi-20260417/">NZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge as political pressure builds - watch the kiwi</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-68622-vs-estimate-at-68206-20260417/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8622 (vs. estimate at 6.8206)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/singapore-exports-surge-on-ai-demand-beating-forecasts-20260417/">Singapore exports surge on AI demand, beating forecasts</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/japan-officials-no-comment-when-asked-if-boj-hike-delay-could-trigger-sharp-yen-fall-20260417/">Japan officials' 'no comment' when asked if BoJ hike delay could trigger sharp yen fall</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-pump-again-says-war-in-iran-should-be-ending-pretty-soon-20260417/">Trump pump again - says war in Iran "should be ending pretty soon"</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-governor-ueda-no-comment-on-declining-mkt-expectations-for-april-rate-hike-20260416/">Bank of Japan Governor Ueda "no comment" on declining mkt expectations for April rate hike</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-pump-says-itll-be-great-for-hezbollah-if-they-act-nice-and-well-20260416/">Trump pump - says it'll be great for Hezbollah if they act nice and well</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/g7-warns-on-wars-economic-risks-signals-action-on-inflation-supply-chains-20260416/">G7 warns on war’s economic risks, signals action on inflation, supply chains</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/unverified-reports-tehran-plans-to-begin-initial-steps-toward-bab-al-mandab-block-20260416/">Unverified reports Tehran plans to begin “initial steps” toward Bab al-Mandab block</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/nz-food-prices-fall-spending-slows-as-rbnz-maintains-cautious-stance-20260416/">NZ food prices fall, spending slows as RBNZ maintains cautious stance</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/ecri-markets-underestimating-global-inflation-upswing-beyond-oil-20260416/">ECRI: Markets underestimating global inflation upswing beyond oil</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/rba-breaks-ranks-will-hike-again-as-global-central-banks-stay-sidelined-rbc-20260416/">RBA breaks ranks, will hike again, as global central banks stay sidelined: RBC</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-to-delay-weapons-deliveries-to-europe-as-iran-war-strains-stockpiles-20260416/">U.S. to delay weapons deliveries to Europe as Iran war strains stockpiles</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-israel-agrees-to-ceasefire-in-lebanon-20260416/">investingLive Americas market news wrap: Israel agrees to ceasefire in Lebanon</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-stresses-need-for-full-israeli-withdrawal-from-southern-lebanon-20260416/">Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon</a></li></ul><p>At a glance:</p><ul><li data-section-id="ldct00" data-start="26" data-end="131">Mixed geopolitical signals: ceasefire talk offsets escalation risks (Bab al-Mandab threat unverified) </li><li data-section-id="knfscv" data-start="132" data-end="216"> Markets lean toward optimism on Trump ceasefire tone despite ongoing uncertainty </li><li data-section-id="1xdgmcw" data-start="217" data-end="299"> BoJ flags oil-driven stagflation risk, keeps policy flexible and accommodative </li><li data-section-id="gqe4ut" data-start="300" data-end="393"> China reinforces easing bias and fiscal support; NZ political noise adds mild uncertainty </li><li data-section-id="1en6ifs" data-start="394" data-end="459"> FX subdued; equities softer as traders trim risk into weekend</li></ul><p data-section-id="1pdo2sc" data-start="500" data-end="517">Geopolitics</p><p data-start="518" data-end="644">Geopolitical headlines remained mixed, with tentative signs of de-escalation offset by lingering risks to key shipping routes.</p><p data-start="646" data-end="1058">Iranian officials reiterated the need for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while unverified reports suggested Tehran could begin “initial steps” toward blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait from midday tomorrow. That latter development, if confirmed, would represent a significant escalation risk for global trade and energy flows, though markets treated it cautiously given the lack of verification.</p><p data-start="1060" data-end="1523">On the more constructive side, sentiment was supported by a series of optimistic remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump. He suggested the conflict could end “pretty soon” and pointed to positive developments around Lebanon, including ceasefire-related progress and the possibility of U.S.-Iran engagement over the weekend. While similar comments have been made repeatedly in recent weeks, markets appear increasingly willing to lean into the positive narrative.</p><p data-start="1525" data-end="1625">Overall, the tone remains fragile, with de-escalation hopes balancing against persistent tail risks.</p><p data-section-id="9gokh9" data-start="1632" data-end="1659">Central banks / macro</p><p data-start="1660" data-end="1819">Central bank commentary reflected the growing complexity of the macro backdrop, particularly the inflation-growth trade-off stemming from higher energy prices.</p><p data-start="1821" data-end="2308">Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasised that rising oil prices are acting as a drag on Japan’s growth while simultaneously pushing up inflation, highlighting a classic supply shock dilemma. He reiterated that monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with low real interest rates, and stressed that policy decisions will remain data-dependent and assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Ueda declined to be drawn on near-term rate expectations, reinforcing a cautious stance.</p><p data-start="2310" data-end="2685">In China, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng reaffirmed confidence in the country’s long-term growth outlook while signalling that policy will remain “appropriately loose.” This was complemented by the NDRC outlining a broad fiscal and industrial push, including support for consumption, high-growth sectors such as AI and the digital economy, and expanded energy security measures.</p><p data-start="2687" data-end="2961">In New Zealand, political developments added a layer of uncertainty, with Prime Minister Luxon pushing back against reports of a leadership challenge. While not immediately market-moving, softer polling trends and election-related risks could become more relevant over time.</p><p data-section-id="yn9riw" data-start="2968" data-end="2976">FX</p><p data-start="2977" data-end="3183">Major FX was relatively subdued. The yen weakened modestly, with limited support from official commentary suggesting that broader dollar strength, rather than idiosyncratic yen weakness, is driving moves. Good luck with that.</p><p data-section-id="18gaz0l" data-start="3190" data-end="3204">Equities</p><p data-start="3205" data-end="3445">Asia-Pacific equities underperformed, with traders trimming exposure into the weekend despite positive cues from Wall Street. The cautious tone reflects ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and reluctance to carry risk amid fluid headline risk.</p><p data-start="3205" data-end="3445">Houthis in Yemen will do the work to attempy po block Bab al-Mandeb if needed. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>NZ PM Luxon said he has full caucus support despite reports of a leadership push, as weak polling adds to political uncertainty ahead of the election, posing modest downside risks for NZD sentiment.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-section-id="xpfrdw" data-start="26" data-end="106">NZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge reports, says he has caucus support </li><li data-section-id="c0smci" data-start="107" data-end="172"> Media reports suggest internal pressure within National Party </li><li data-section-id="cf806e" data-start="173" data-end="256"> Polling shows declining support for Luxon and coalition risks ahead of election </li><li data-section-id="f0te39" data-start="257" data-end="327"> Political uncertainty adds to already fragile NZ economic backdrop </li><li data-section-id="um06oj" data-start="328" data-end="417"> Limited immediate market impact, but risks skewed to NZD sentiment and fiscal outlook</li></ul><p data-start="464" data-end="715">New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has pushed back against reports of a potential leadership challenge, insisting he retains full support from his National Party caucus despite rising political pressure ahead of this year’s general election.</p><p data-start="717" data-end="1071">Speaking to reporters, Luxon said he remains confident in his position, dismissing suggestions that party members are preparing to move against him when parliament returns. Local media reports have indicated that some lawmakers are considering a push for leadership change, though not necessarily through an immediate formal challenge or confidence vote.</p><p data-start="1073" data-end="1495">The political noise comes as polling trends point to weakening support for both Luxon and the governing coalition. Recent surveys show the National Party struggling to consistently poll above 30%, raising questions about its ability to retain power at the 7 November 2026 election. Leadership preference data has also turned unfavourable, with opposition leader Chris Hipkins polling ahead of Luxon in at least one recent survey.</p><p data-start="1497" data-end="1821">From a macro perspective, the developments add a layer of political uncertainty to an already mixed economic backdrop. New Zealand’s economy has been navigating subdued growth, elevated interest rates, and a gradual disinflation process, leaving policymakers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in a cautious holding pattern.</p><p data-start="1823" data-end="2166">While the immediate economic impact of the political developments is limited, the situation could become more market-relevant if it begins to influence fiscal policy expectations or investor confidence. A weaker or more contested government heading into the election may reduce policy clarity at a time when economic conditions remain fragile.</p><p data-start="2168" data-end="2628">For financial markets, the implications are likely to be modest in the near term but skewed to sentiment. The New Zealand dollar could face mild pressure if political instability intensifies, particularly against a backdrop of global risk sensitivity and commodity price volatility. Domestic bond markets may remain anchored by the RBNZ’s policy stance, though longer-term yields could begin to reflect increased fiscal uncertainty if political risks escalate.</p><p data-start="2630" data-end="2803">Overall, while not yet a market-moving event, the political backdrop is becoming an increasingly relevant secondary factor for New Zealand assets as the election approaches. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Singapore NODX rose 15.3% y/y in March, beating forecasts, as AI-driven electronics exports surged, though non-electronics remained weak and MAS warned of downside risks from global conditions. </p><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-section-id="12jz7jz" data-start="26" data-end="97">Singapore NODX +15.3% y/y in March vs +9.4% expected (Reuters poll) </li><li data-section-id="1pd8j40" data-start="98" data-end="157"> Electronics exports surge +74% y/y, driven by AI demand </li><li data-section-id="190td9b" data-start="158" data-end="230"> Non-electronics still weak (-0.6% y/y), highlighting uneven recovery </li><li data-section-id="6z1lfe" data-start="231" data-end="292"> Export growth broadening across Asia, softer to US and EU </li><li data-section-id="1jh4wp4" data-start="293" data-end="369"> MAS flags downside risks from energy shock and tighter global conditions</li></ul><p data-start="416" data-end="643">Singapore’s export sector delivered a strong upside surprise in March, driven by a surge in electronics shipments linked to artificial intelligence demand, although underlying momentum remains uneven across sectors and regions.</p><p data-start="645" data-end="967">Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 15.3% year-on-year, well above the 9.4% increase expected in a Reuters poll and accelerating sharply from February’s 4% gain. The data marks a seventh consecutive month of expansion, reinforcing the resilience of Singapore’s externally driven economy despite rising global uncertainty.</p><p data-start="969" data-end="1300">The strength was heavily concentrated in electronics, where exports jumped 74% y/y, supported by robust AI-related demand and favourable base effects. Key contributors included integrated circuits, personal computers, and disk media products, underscoring Singapore’s position within the global semiconductor and tech supply chain.</p><p data-start="1302" data-end="1622">However, the broader picture remains more mixed. Non-electronic exports declined 0.6% y/y, extending a run of weakness, though the pace of contraction moderated from February’s 6.9% drop. This divergence highlights a two-speed export profile, with tech-linked sectors outperforming while more traditional industries lag.</p><p data-start="1624" data-end="1970">Regionally, export gains were concentrated within Asia, with shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China rising, while exports to the United States, European Union, and Indonesia declined compared to a year earlier. This suggests that demand linked to regional supply chains — particularly in electronics — remains stronger than in Western markets.</p><p data-start="1972" data-end="2370">For policymakers, the data comes shortly after the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation and currency pressures. However, MAS has also flagged growing downside risks, warning that a prolonged energy shock could tighten global financial conditions and weigh on demand, including through potential negative spillovers to the AI-driven cycle.</p><p data-start="2372" data-end="2644">While Singapore has upgraded its 2026 export growth forecast to 2–4%, the outlook remains contingent on global conditions. The March data reinforces near-term strength, but also highlights vulnerability to external shocks and the narrow base of the current export upswing. </p><p data-start="2372" data-end="2644">Highlights strength in the global AI and semiconductor cycle, supporting tech-linked assets. However, uneven export growth and MAS caution reinforce sensitivity to global demand and energy-driven risks.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>more to come </p><p>Trump is speaking at an event in LasVegas. Feedng the chooks. </p><p>-</p><p>Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-stresses-need-for-full-israeli-withdrawal-from-southern-lebanon-20260416/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/unverified-reports-tehran-plans-to-begin-initial-steps-toward-bab-al-mandab-block-20260416/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Unverified reports Tehran plans to begin “initial steps” toward Bab al-Mandab block</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>The latest from Trump:</p><p>Trump is happy with stock markets bouncing back. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>G7 finance chiefs warned the Middle East war risks damaging growth and fuelling inflation, signalling readiness to act on energy shocks while accelerating efforts to diversify critical minerals supply chains.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-section-id="158g2ue" data-start="26" data-end="97">G7 flags urgent need to limit economic fallout from Middle East war </li><li data-section-id="1vr7gxy" data-start="98" data-end="180"> Central banks ready to act to prevent energy shock feeding into core inflation </li><li data-section-id="x43gnx" data-start="181" data-end="253"> IEA oil releases highlight coordinated response to supply disruption </li><li data-section-id="l6qve7" data-start="254" data-end="332"> Rare earths and critical minerals diversification away from China in focus </li><li data-section-id="oo402i" data-start="333" data-end="406"> Free transit through Hormuz seen as key to stabilising energy markets</li></ul><p data-start="453" data-end="682">G7 finance ministers and central bank governors have warned of mounting risks to the global economy from the Middle East conflict, pledging coordinated action to contain inflation pressures and safeguard energy and supply chains.</p><p data-start="684" data-end="1081">Meeting on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, officials agreed that limiting the economic damage from a prolonged conflict is an urgent priority, while emphasising the need to move toward a lasting peace. The group highlighted growing concern over both direct and second-round effects from the energy shock, particularly its potential to feed into broader inflation dynamics.</p><p data-start="1083" data-end="1452">From a policy perspective, G7 central banks signalled a readiness to respond if needed, while stressing that they are not yet in “rush mode.” Officials indicated they would act to prevent higher energy and commodity prices from becoming embedded in core inflation through second- and third-round effects, but will rely on incoming data before adjusting policy settings.</p><p data-start="1454" data-end="1852">Fiscal and policy coordination has already been deployed. Backed by the G7, the International Energy Agency released record volumes from strategic reserves to offset supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Officials indicated further intervention remains on the table if conditions deteriorate, underscoring a willingness to use inventories and coordinated measures to stabilise markets.</p><p data-start="1854" data-end="2216">Energy security remains central. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure stressed the importance of ensuring uninterrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, warning against any attempt to impose transit costs. Maintaining open and cost-free passage is seen as critical to preventing further volatility in global oil markets and limiting inflation spillovers.</p><p data-start="2218" data-end="2570">Beyond energy, the G7 also sharpened its focus on supply chain resilience. Finance leaders discussed concrete steps to develop alternative supply chains for rare earths and critical minerals, aiming to reduce dependence on China’s dominant position. This reflects a broader strategic push to insulate key industrial inputs from geopolitical disruption.</p><p data-start="2572" data-end="2738">The group also reaffirmed support for Ukraine, with a focus on sustaining its economy, energy infrastructure, and reform agenda, while maintaining pressure on Russia.</p><p data-start="2740" data-end="2924">Overall, the G7 message points to a coordinated policy stance: monitor closely, act if needed, and prioritise preventing an energy shock from morphing into a broader inflation problem. </p><p data-start="2740" data-end="2924">--</p><p data-start="3728" data-end="3931">Reinforces a coordinated global policy backstop, helping cap extreme energy-driven inflation risks. Focus on Hormuz and supply chains keeps oil, shipping, and industrial metals central to market pricing.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>NZ food prices fell 0.6% m/m (prev -0.1%) while retail card spending rose 0.7% (prev 1.4%), showing easing inflation and slowing demand, reinforcing expectations the RBNZ will hold rates steady.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul data-start="26" data-end="387"><li data-section-id="1i4781c" data-start="26" data-end="96">NZ food prices -0.6% m/m (prev -0.1%), annual pace 3.4% – Stats NZ </li><li data-section-id="1aducaf" data-start="97" data-end="177"> Core retail card spending +0.7% m/m (prev +1.4%), signalling slower momentum </li><li data-section-id="19tj0tc" data-start="178" data-end="242"> Total card spending +1.3% m/m (prev +1.1%, revised to +1.3%) </li><li data-section-id="119vog3" data-start="243" data-end="317"> Data points to easing inflation but still-resilient, moderating demand </li><li data-section-id="s5h288" data-start="318" data-end="387"> RBNZ likely to remain on hold as disinflation continues gradually </li></ul><p data-start="434" data-end="645">New Zealand data showed a combination of easing food price pressures and moderating, but still resilient, consumer spending in March, reinforcing expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will remain on hold.</p><p data-start="647" data-end="982">Food prices fell 0.6% month-on-month in March, a deeper decline than the previous -0.1%, according to Statistics New Zealand. On an annual basis, food prices rose 3.4%, with the category accounting for nearly 19% of the CPI basket. The latest drop adds to evidence that near-term inflation pressures in household essentials are easing.</p><p data-start="984" data-end="1405">Retail spending data, however, painted a more nuanced picture. Core electronic card spending rose 0.7% m/m, slowing from a stronger 1.4% increase previously. Meanwhile, total card spending rose 1.3% m/m, matching the upwardly revised 1.3% print for February (initially reported as 1.1%). The data suggests consumption remains supported but is losing some momentum as higher interest rates continue to weigh on households.</p><p data-start="1407" data-end="1557">Together, the figures point to a gradual cooling in inflation alongside a still-functioning consumer sector, rather than a sharp slowdown in activity.</p><p data-start="1559" data-end="1852">For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the data reinforces a cautious policy stance. Price pressures are easing in some categories, while underlying inflation remains a concern.</p><p data-start="1854" data-end="2155">The broader economic backdrop remains mixed. Growth has been uneven, with weakness in housing and business investment offset by pockets of resilience in consumption. External risks, particularly from global energy markets, continue to cloud the outlook and could complicate the inflation trajectory.</p><p data-start="2157" data-end="2446">For now, the moderation in both inflation and spending supports a “wait-and-see” approach from the RBNZ. Policymakers are likely to keep rates unchanged in the near term, looking for clearer evidence that inflation is durably contained without a sharper deterioration in economic activity.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>The U.S. is warning European allies of likely weapons delivery delays as the Iran war strains already stretched defence stockpiles, with competing demands from Ukraine, Israel, and Gulf missile defence adding pressure.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-section-id="s1qmbu" data-start="26" data-end="128">U.S. likely to delay some weapons deliveries to European allies due to Iran war demand – Reuters</li><li data-section-id="pimqz9" data-start="129" data-end="189"> Affected countries include Baltic states and Scandinavia </li><li data-section-id="1c62u43" data-start="190" data-end="266"> Delays tied to strain on U.S. weapons stockpiles and production capacity </li><li data-section-id="eyi4h3" data-start="267" data-end="339"> Ongoing conflicts (Ukraine, Gaza, Iran) compounding supply pressures </li><li data-section-id="zecbay" data-start="340" data-end="409"> Patriot missile usage highlights competing global defence demands</li></ul><p data-start="464" data-end="703">The United States has informed several European allies that deliveries of previously contracted weapons may be delayed as the ongoing Iran war places increasing strain on U.S. military stockpiles, according to sources cited by Reuters.</p><p data-start="705" data-end="1037">Officials have privately communicated that a number of European countries, including those in the Baltic region and Scandinavia, are likely to be affected. The weapons in question were largely purchased through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program but have yet to be delivered, with shipments now expected to face delays.</p><p data-start="1039" data-end="1355">The issue reflects mounting pressure on U.S. defence inventories, which have already been significantly drawn down in recent years. Washington has supplied large volumes of military equipment to Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, alongside continued support for Israel’s operations in Gaza beginning in late 2023.</p><p data-start="1357" data-end="1669">The escalation of the Iran conflict — which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28 — has further intensified demand. Iran has since launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf states, many of which have been intercepted using systems such as the PAC-3 Patriot missile defence platform.</p><p data-start="1671" data-end="1913">These developments have raised concerns within parts of the U.S. government that defence production may struggle to keep pace with overlapping global commitments, potentially forcing delays or reprioritisation of deliveries to allied nations.</p><p data-start="1915" data-end="2001">Neither the White House nor the Pentagon immediately commented on the reported delays.</p><p data-start="1915" data-end="2001">---</p><p data-start="1915" data-end="2001">This underscores a tightening global defence supply chain, reinforcing elevated geopolitical risk premia. Defence stocks may benefit from sustained demand, while allies’ security concerns could support higher military spending across Europe and NATO.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-announces-isreal-and-lebanon-ceasefire-20260416/">Trump announces Isreal and Lebanon ceasefire</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-says-iran-meeting-could-be-on-weekend-netanyahu-confirms-lebanon-ceasefire-20260416/">Trump says Iran meeting could be on weekend; Netanyahu confirms Lebanon ceasefire</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-207k-vs-215k-expected-20260416/">US initial jobless claims 207K vs 215K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-april-philly-fed-business-index-267-vs-100-expected-20260416/">US April Philly Fed business index +26.7 vs +10.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/gulf-and-european-officials-expect-the-us-to-take-six-months-for-an-iran-deal-20260416/">Gulf and European officials expect the US to take six months for an Iran deal</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-miran-i-would-pencil-in-3-rate-cuts-this-year-versus-4-before-the-war-20260416/">Fed's Miran: I would pencil in 3 rate cuts this year versus 4 before the war</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-williams-at-this-moment-not-appropriate-to-provide-specific-forward-guidance-20260416/">Fed's Williams: At this moment, not appropriate to provide specific forward guidance</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-march-industrial-production-05-vs-01-expected-20260416/">US March industrial production -0.5% vs +0.1% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/netflix-q1-earnings-the-print-is-clean-the-guide-is-the-problem-20260416/">Netflix Q1 earnings: The print is clean, the guide is the problem</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-williams-seeing-emerging-signs-of-supply-chain-disruptions-20260416/">Fed's Williams: Seeing emerging signs of supply chain disruptions</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/anthropic-releases-opus-47-drops-but-the-real-mythos-is-still-behind-the-glass-20260416/">Anthropic releases Opus 4.7 drops but the real 'Mythos' is still behind the glass</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecbs-kazaks-market-pricing-of-two-rate-hikes-this-year-is-reasonable-20260416/">ECB's Kazaks: Market pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonable</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold flat</li><li>WTI crude oil up $2.15 to $93.44</li><li>US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 4.315%</li><li>S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%</li><li>CAD leads, NZD lags</li></ul><p>The Nasdaq rose for the twelfth consecutive session in one of the all-time greatest runs of green. It was helped along by the latest Anthropic release and the Trump comments. Everything in Trump's comments sounded positive and that pushed back against some tough talk from Hegseth early in the session that briefly weighed. Intel, Cisco and Texas Instruments were standouts but after hours, Netflix fell 8% on weak guidance.</p><p>The picture in FX was mixed as the war trades aren't as clear anymore. It seems we're moving beyond the 'war-on/war-off' dynamic and pricing economic shifts, supply chains and other economic shifts. That helps to explain some CAD outperformance as it's not vulnerable to oil, gas or fertilizer shortages in the way that Australia or developing markets are. </p><p>In general, there was a retracement of war trades as crude ticked higher at the front end of the curve. At one point, oil was up more than $4 but halved its gains after Trump's comments. Despite that, the euro was softer and Treasury yields rose 2-5 bps across the curve.</p><p>An underrated factor in recent market moves could be economic data. Yesterday the Empire Fed was strong and today's Philly number was also strong. Initial jobless claims also fell as good numbers continue to roll in. If not for tariffs and war, the global economy would be cooking right now.</p><p>The Friday North American economic data schedule is light with Canadian CPI as the lone highlight.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>This the latest, Iranian media citing Foreign Ministry spokesperson: </p><ul><li>Iran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon </li><li>Iran welcomes ceasefire in Lebanon, saying it was part of Iran-U.S. ceasefire understanding mediated by Pakistan</li></ul><p>That first demand sounds like to might be sticking point.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>The data from New Zealand is all that is on the calendar. </p><p>These are unlikely to move the kiwi too much upon release. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Iran's agreed they won't have a nuclear weapon</li><li>If there's no deal with Iran, fighting will resume</li><li>We have a lot of agreement with Iran</li><li>Iran has agreed to give us back the nuclear dust</li><li>Next meeting with Iran may take place over the weekend</li><li>US blockade of Hormuz is holding up well</li><li>I think we are going to have a deal</li><li>We have a very powerful statement that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, it goes beyond 20 years</li><li>I will extend the ceasefire if I think it's necessary</li><li>If a deal happens, oil goes down, prices go down and inflation goes down</li><li>Looking very good we will make a deal with Iran</li><li>Iran has agreed to almost everything</li><li>If Iran deal is signed in Pakistan, I might go there</li></ul><p>Oil prices are falling on this.</p><p>Netanyahu is also hitting the wires:</p><ul><li>I agreed to a temporary, ten-day ceasefire with Lebanon</li><li>Our key demand is that Hezbollah must be dismantled</li><li>Israel has not agreed to Hezbollah demand to retreat to international border</li><li>We will remain in Lebanon with an extensive security zone</li></ul><p>This is all good news and it's reversed a bit of the $4 rise in oil prices today.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>A newswire report is just out talking about a six month timeline for an Iran deal, citing Gulf and European officials. </p><p>It's worth highlighting that the original JCPOA took two years to negotiate. The nightmare strategy here is that the Strait stays closed during negotiations or that risks are so high that tankers won't take the risk.</p><p>Obviously, that's an intolerable situation for the global economy and we've seen some equity selling on the headline.</p><p>Here's a bit of a history lesson: The WWI ceasefire was agreed at 5:10 am and the armistice went into effect at 11:11 am on November 11, 1918 but the Treaty of Versailles wasn't signed until June 1919 (more than seven months later) and it didn't go into effect until Jan 1920. And that was with Germany defeated and essentially being dictated the terms of the peace.</p><p>So these things take time to paper but all that really matters for markets is the Strait.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>This isn't a big surprise given the leaks all week but it's still progress and a great signal that the US and Iran are on track:</p><blockquote>I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST. On Tuesday, the two Countries met for the first time in 34 years here in Washington, D.C., with our Great Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. I have directed Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, together with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Razin' Caine, to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a Lasting PEACE. It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th, so let's, GET IT DONE! President DONALD J. TRUMP</blockquote><p>There has been a small bump in risk assets on this. Now we get to the harder part of ending the war in Iran and opening the Strait of Hormuz in a way that preserves long term peace.</p><p>Now there is a report that Netanyahu is just convening a cabinet meeting and one report says cabinet is outraged it was announced by Trump before they were informed. There is also a Reuters report saying that Israel's military has no plans to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon during any ceasefire.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p data-path-to-node="2">If you’ve been using AI lately, you know the discourse. It’s been a frustrating few weeks for the power users and there’s a growing chorus on Reddit and X that the latest updates from Google and Anthropic have been “nerfed”—shaved down at the edges, made more cautious, and frankly, a bit dumber in the name of safety and "alignment." I fully agree with this assessment as someone who uses them daily and can't believe how dome Gemini in particular has gotten.</p><p data-path-to-node="2">Both Anthropic and Google have spent the last two months getting hammered by power users who say their flagship models have been quietly degraded — what developers have started calling "AI shrinkflation." An AMD senior director ran the forensics on 6,852 Claude Code sessions and found median reasoning depth collapsed roughly 73% between January and March. Independent benchmarks from Marginlab show Opus 4.6's SWE-Bench-Pro pass rate sliding from 56% to 50%. Gemini 3 Pro users have been filing near-identical complaints in Google's own developer forums since December — context windows that forget at 32k despite being marketed as 1M, documents that won't process, reasoning is obviously thinner.</p><p data-path-to-node="3">In any case, Anthropic just dropped Claude Opus 4.7, and while the headlines say "faster and better at coding," the real story is what’s not in the box.</p><p data-path-to-node="4">The Benchmarks</p><p data-path-to-node="5">The technicals on Opus 4.7 look good on paper. Anthropic is touting a massive leap in vision capabilities and a specific focus on "economically valuable knowledge work."</p><p data-path-to-node="6">They’re pointing to the GDPval-AA benchmark—a metric that measures finance and legal domain expertise—where 4.7 is showing clear gains over its predecessor. In the coding world, the "ultrareview" command and "xhigh" reasoning levels suggest they’re trying to claw back the trust of developers who felt the previous versions were starting to hallucinate or get lazy.</p><p data-path-to-node="8">The model everyone actually wants—Claude Mythos—is still in "Preview" and under lock and key. But note that they're teasing it in the table above, which was released in the PR for 4.7. Anthropic has said that Mythos is too powerful (or too dangerous for cybersecurity) to let the general public touch it yet.</p><p data-path-to-node="9">They’ve launched "Project Glasswing" to gatekeep the top-tier intelligence, citing safety concerns. For the market, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it builds the "God-model" hype. On the other, it confirms the suspicion that the models we can pay for are effectively the "lite" versions, throttled by safeguards that act as a drag on performance, or that there is some kind of degradation or throttling due to over use.</p><p data-path-to-node="11">From an investment perspective, this is where it gets interesting. We’re seeing a shift in the AI trade. The initial "wow" factor of LLMs is hitting the reality of corporate safety and compute costs.</p><p data-path-to-node="12">When users complain about a model being "nerfed," what they’re usually seeing is a company trying to save on inference costs or avoid a PR nightmare. If the "usefulness" of these tools is being capped by safety protocols, the ROI for businesses starts to look a lot different.</p><p data-path-to-node="13">It seems to me that Opus 4.7 is a "bridge" model. It’s designed to keep users happy while Anthropic figures out how to release Mythos without breaking the world (or their servers). The whole discourse around nerfing actually bodes well for inference plays like Micron (MU) and Samsung. It's also good for Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), who are designing more efficient chips for Google.</p><p data-path-to-node="14">Keep an eye on the design stocks today—Adobe and Wix are already feeling the heat from the web-design rumors surrounding this release. But until "Mythos" is actually out in the wild, the AI sector is trading on potential, not full-throttle delivery. We're still waiting for the "unfiltered" moment that justifies the next leg of this massive capex spend.</p><p data-path-to-node="14">What I've noticed is that new models work great for awhile and then are nerfed over time, so enjoy the new release while you can.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>There was a report from Iranian media two days ago that a ceasefire was hours away and that turned out to be not true. Note that this one is from Haaretz, which is a daily Israeli newspaper. It says that the Israeli army is preparing to halt combat operations between 7 pm and midnight local time. It's currently 4:30 pm in Tel Aviv.</p><p>This is obviously good news for peace negotiations in Iran and the region.</p><p>Pete Hegseth had some tough talk today but the political signs continue to point towards some kind of deal. However the risk-reward here isn't great as I'd estimate at deal is 95% priced in with stocks at a record high and the Nasdaq on an 11-day winning streak.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +0.2% (revised to +0.7%)</li><li>Manufacturing output -0.1% vs +0.1% exp</li><li>Prior manufacturing output +0.2% (revised to +0.4%)</li><li>Capacity utilization 75.7% vs 76.3% prior</li></ul><p>The revisions essentially sterilize the miss here.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 219K (revised to 218K)</li></ul><ul><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH">4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 209.75K versus 209.5K last week</li><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH">Continuing claims 1818K vs 1810K expected</li><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH">Prior week 1794K (revised to 1787K)</li></ul><p>This is a good reading and while the Iran war was going on there have been a series of upbeat readings on the economy. As this report was released, the Philly Fed also handily beat expectations. Were it not for this war and tariffs, we would be talking about a very strong US economy and an AI-led boom.</p><p>The US dollar ticked slightly higher on this but trading is generally subdued today with EUR/USD down 17 pips on the day to 1.1781. S&amp;P 500 futures are up 10 points.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Initial claims drop back to 207K after last week's pop to 218K, reinforcing the view that the labour market remains tight without showing signs of meaningful deterioration. The 4-week average barely budged, which is the number to watch through seasonal noise around Easter and spring break timing. The unadjusted data actually rose 6.0% week-over-week, but seasonal factors had penciled in an 11.8% jump, so the adjusted print benefits from that offset.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Continuing claims tick up 31K to 1.818M, but the four-week average fell to its lowest level in nearly two years — a quiet signal that those losing jobs are still finding their way back into work reasonably quickly. Year-over-year, continuing claims are running below the comparable 2025 week (1.943M).</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">On the state level, New Jersey (+5,603), Pennsylvania (+2,513) and Oregon (+2,182) drove the largest unadjusted increases in the prior week's data, with Pennsylvania citing layoffs across transportation/warehousing, hospitality and healthcare. Oregon pointed to the education sector. Offsetting declines came from New York (-1,592) and Texas (-1,299).</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-march-philly-fed-business-index-181-vs-100-expected-20260319/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior</a> was +18.1</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Details:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">New orders 33.0 vs 8.6 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Shipments 34.0 vs 22.2 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unfilled orders -10.2 vs -4.7 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Delivery times 1.7 vs 18.9 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Inventories -1.9 vs 1.4 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prices paid 59.3 vs 44.7 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prices received 33.5 vs 21.2 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Number of employees -5.1 vs 0.8 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Average employee workweek 7.7 vs 2.8 prior</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Six-months from now indicators:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">6 month index 40.8 vs 40.0 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Capex index 6-month forward 35.2 vs 25.8 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">New orders 45.7 vs 49.6 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Shipments 40.8 vs 53.6 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unfilled orders -4.1 vs 15.3 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Delivery times 2.7 vs -4.7 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Inventories -0.7 vs 16.8 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prices paid 50.2 vs 53.7 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prices received 50.2 vs 38.4 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Number of employees 35.9 vs 40.4 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Average employee workweek 30.3 vs 24.1 prior</li></ul><p>The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all moved higher this month. However, the employment index fell and turned negative, suggesting overall declines in employment. Both price indexes rose for the second consecutive month. The firms continue to expect overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators moved down.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">What is the Philly Fed Index?</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, also known as the Philly Fed Index, is one of the earliest monthly indicators of manufacturing sector health in the United States. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, it surveys manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Readings above zero indicate expanding activity, while readings below zero signal contraction. The survey is closely watched by economists and market participants because it often serves as a leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing Index released later each month.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/markets-continue-to-keep-the-faith-awaiting-more-positive-us-iran-developments-20260416/">Markets continue to keep the faith awaiting more positive US-Iran developments</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/after-5-months-the-nasdaq-finally-hits-a-new-record-high-amid-us-iran-deal-optimism-20260416/">After 5 months, the Nasdaq finally hits a new record high amid US-Iran deal optimism</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/netflix-earnings-is-tonight-are-you-holding-20260416/">Netflix earnings is tonight. Are you holding?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/senior-iranian-official-fundamental-disagreements-continue-over-nuclear-issues-20260416/">Senior Iranian Official: Fundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issues</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecb-policymaker-muller-a-rate-move-at-the-april-meeting-cannot-be-ruled-out-20260416/">ECB policymaker Muller: A rate move at the April meeting cannot be ruled out</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-april-hike-premature-no-rush-to-act-20260416/">ECB's Villeroy: April hike premature, no rush to act</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/all-members-viewed-risks-to-inflation-outlook-as-tilted-to-the-upside-ecb-account-shows-20260416/">All members viewed risks to inflation outlook as tilted to the upside, ECB account shows</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/swiss-franc-appreciation-has-led-to-tighter-monetary-conditions-snb-minutes-20260416/">Swiss franc appreciation has led to tighter monetary conditions - SNB minutes</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-february-monthly-gdp-05-vs-01-mm-expected-20260416/">UK February monthly GDP +0.5% vs +0.1% m/m expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/eurozone-march-final-cpi-26-vs-25-yy-prelim-20260416/">Eurozone March final CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y prelim</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/italy-march-final-cpi-17-vs-17-yy-prelim-20260416/">Italy March final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelim</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude (May) down 0.2% to $91.11, WTI crude (June) up 0.2% to $88.30, Brent crude up 0.7% to $95.80</li><li>S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.1%, European indices up 0.3% to 0.6% across the board</li><li>CAD leads, NZD lags on the day</li><li>US 10-year yields flat at 4.275%</li><li>Gold up 0.7% to $4,822, Silver up 0.5% to $79.43</li><li>Bitcoin down 0.1% to $74,761</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">It was another tepid session for the most part as markets are still waiting for more concrete positive developments from the US-Iran conflict.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Pakistan is trying to mediate the situation with its army chief arriving in Tehran to try and push for a second round of talks. The US and Iran are still not able to see eye to eye on a nuclear agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. So, that is keeping things on edge even as markets are taking the more optimistic angle for now.</p><p class="text-align-justify">There's still an air of calm for the most part with oil prices consolidating at the lower end for this week. Brent crude is up just 0.7% to $95.80 as traders remain cautious still. Meanwhile, WTI crude is keeping just above the $91 mark for the May contract whereas the June contract is seeing prices at around $88.30 for now. The latter has more open interest at this stage and is arguably the more reliable indicator of "front-month" pricing.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In the equities space, European stocks are following up on the record high closes in Wall Street with modest gains today. Meanwhile, S&amp;P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are also seen up 0.1% as investors stay calm.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In FX, the dollar is keeping more mixed across the board with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.1780 while USD/JPY is flat near 159.00 on the day. The latter did see a decent rebound after hitting a low of 158.27 in Asia trading, following some verbal jawboning by Japan finance minister Katayama.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The changes among dollar pairs are mostly negligible though with USD/CAD down just 0.1% to 1.3727 and AUD/USD flat on the day at 0.7170 currently.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Elsewhere, precious metals are keeping slight gains with gold up 0.7% to $4,822 while silver is up 0.5% to $79.43 on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">It's still all on US-Iran developments and will continue to be the case until the weekend surely.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +1.9%</li><li>Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim</li><li>Prior +2.4%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">No surprises there as euro area inflation is seen picking up in March as a result of surging energy prices. The US-Iran conflict is the main issue impacting the inflation outlook now and will continue to be the case for the months ahead. The monthly inflation estimate is seen rising by 1.3% in March, after a 0.6% increase in February.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Amid the surge in oil and gas prices, energy price inflation was seen up 7.0% on the month in March. From an annual perspective, it is seen higher by 5.1% compared to the same month last year. That as opposed to a 3.1% decline when viewed from the February month.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Overall, that sees energy prices contribute positively (+0.48%) to headline annual inflation in the region. Previously, energy price inflation had a negative drag of 0.30% in February.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The detailed breakdown shows positive contributions all around with food price inflation at +0.45%, services inflation at +1.49%, and non-energy industrial goods inflation at +0.13%. That comes up to the finalised headline estimate of 2.55% unrounded.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As for core annual inflation, it is seen down to 2.3% from 2.4% previously. However, the spillover impact from higher energy prices to the broader economy will eventually play a role in pushing this number up surely. The main question is how "transitory" will the impact here be. And in turn, that will be how the ECB needs to manage in navigating monetary policy.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Pakistani army chief trip to Iran helped reduce differences in some areas</li><li>After the trip, there are greater hopes for extending the ceasefire and holding a second round of talks</li><li>Fundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issues</li><li>The fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium and the duration of its nuclear restrictions remain unresolved</li></ul><p data-path-to-node="0" id="p-rc_170391e6f4ca38a8-19">Following a high-level visit to Tehran by Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, a senior Iranian official indicated that the mediation has successfully narrowed the gap in several key areas. The trip has bolstered hopes for both an extension of the current fragile ceasefire and the convening of a second round of formal talks, potentially to be held again in Islamabad.</p><p data-path-to-node="1" id="p-rc_170391e6f4ca38a8-20">Despite the progress, fundamental disagreements continue to stall a broader breakthrough, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program. While the mediation facilitated better communication, the core dispute over the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains a significant hurdle. The US has maintained a firm stance on the removal or dilution of this material, whereas Tehran continues to defend its sovereign right to maintain its nuclear infrastructure.</p><p data-path-to-node="2" id="p-rc_170391e6f4ca38a8-21">Furthermore, the duration of nuclear restrictions, a cornerstone of any long-term settlement, remains unresolved. Negotiators are reportedly wrestling with the timeline for a "freeze" on enrichment, with significant disparities between the decades-long restrictions sought by the US and the much shorter duration proposed by Iran. While Pakistan's involvement has helped maintain a diplomatic channel, the resolution of these high-stakes nuclear issues continues to be the primary obstacle to a lasting peace agreement.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.