<p>Trump on TruthSocial posts:</p><p>Trumps "reply" to the Supreme Leaders comments are controlled. He seems to also be talking to Isreal to not muck things up. </p><p>The Supreme leader was a more confrontational and negative, but his audience requires that he remain confrontational.. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>The Iran Supreme Leader responding to the MOU said:</p><ul data-start="0" data-end="706" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node=""><li data-section-id="cslt4a" data-start="0" data-end="192">He had a different view regarding the MOU with the U.S., but due to commitment to the Iranian president and other members of the Supreme National Security Council, he issued permission. </li><li data-section-id="7e2xsp" data-start="193" data-end="307"> Future in-person negotiations that are going to take place do not mean accepting the enemy's point of view. </li><li data-section-id="1khj3ys" data-start="308" data-end="387"> If the American side wants to be too demanding, Iran will not accept it. </li><li data-section-id="10epw4t" data-start="388" data-end="593"> He gave permission to the MOU after the Iranian president and other officials assured him they would accept responsibility for safeguarding the rights of the Iranian nation and the resistance front. </li><li data-section-id="1kxh348" data-start="594" data-end="706" data-is-last-node=""> It was the American president who, out of desperation, used all kinds of leverage to bring the MOU about. </li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul data-start="36" data-end="414"><li data-section-id="13dti25" data-start="36" data-end="160">On Thursday, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas. </li><li data-section-id="rlkrkm" data-start="161" data-end="256"> American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Gulf. </li><li data-section-id="10f0bpf" data-start="257" data-end="318"> All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. </li><li data-section-id="hq43mw" data-start="319" data-end="414"> Naval ships will remain in the region to help ensure compliance with the U.S.-Iran agreement. </li></ul><p data-start="416" data-end="433">Post Summary:</p><p data-start="435" data-end="1067" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">The latest developments confirms the MOU de-escalation in maritime tensions between the United States and Iran. U.S. forces have ended all blockade enforcement operations and lifted restrictions on maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, allowing commercial shipping to resume normal transit. </p><p data-start="435" data-end="1067" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">While naval assets will remain deployed in the region, their role has shifted from enforcement to monitoring, with the objective of ensuring both sides adhere to the terms of the agreement. </p><p data-start="435" data-end="1067" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">The move is being viewed as a confidence-building step that could reduce risks to Gulf shipping lanes and support broader regional stability.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Politico has published the MOU signed by Pres. Trump. You can see it <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019e-db5d-d1ed-a59f-ff5da65a0000" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">HERE</a>.</p><p data-section-id="ig42jq" data-start="0" data-end="111">Key Points from the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (Iran–U.S.) </p><p data-start="113" data-end="140">Ceasefire and Security</p><ul data-start="141" data-end="507"><li data-section-id="1gselsh" data-start="141" data-end="252"> Immediate and permanent termination of military operations between Iran, the United States, and their allies. </li><li data-section-id="1uoeosi" data-start="253" data-end="331"> Commitment not to initiate military action or use force against one another. </li><li data-section-id="qp8j9t" data-start="332" data-end="396"> Protection of Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity. </li><li data-section-id="d8imfv" data-start="397" data-end="507"> Final agreement would formalize the end of the conflict on all fronts. </li></ul><p data-start="509" data-end="525">Sovereignty</p><ul data-start="526" data-end="721"><li data-section-id="rj9w5h" data-start="526" data-end="607"> Both sides agree to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity. </li><li data-section-id="e5wmbj" data-start="608" data-end="721"> Commitment to refrain from interference in each other's internal affairs. </li></ul><p data-start="723" data-end="736">Timeline</p><ul data-start="737" data-end="880"><li data-section-id="1jg2edz" data-start="737" data-end="880"> Target of negotiating a final agreement within 60 days, with extensions possible by mutual consent. </li></ul><p data-start="882" data-end="915">Maritime Trade and Blockades</p><ul data-start="916" data-end="1293"><li data-section-id="10tuehz" data-start="916" data-end="1012"> U.S. to begin removing naval blockades and impediments against Iran immediately after signing. </li><li data-section-id="lkwhf3" data-start="1013" data-end="1078"> Full removal of the naval blockade targeted within 30 days. </li><li data-section-id="1en3m7m" data-start="1079" data-end="1186"> Iran to facilitate safe commercial shipping through the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Strait of Hormuz. </li><li data-section-id="10lvz94" data-start="1187" data-end="1293"> Iran to undertake de-mining and removal of navigational obstacles. </li></ul><p data-start="1295" data-end="1322">U.S. Military Presence</p><ul data-start="1323" data-end="1465"><li data-section-id="1kvf2m6" data-start="1323" data-end="1465"> U.S. commits to removing its forces from the vicinity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal. </li></ul><p data-start="1467" data-end="1507">Reconstruction and Economic Support</p><ul data-start="1508" data-end="1834"><li data-section-id="ebylen" data-start="1508" data-end="1639"> U.S. and regional partners would develop a reconstruction and economic development plan for Iran worth at least $300 billion. </li><li data-section-id="1mfkzwa" data-start="1640" data-end="1702"> Mechanism for implementation to be finalized within 60 days. </li><li data-section-id="emjb0f" data-start="1703" data-end="1834"> U.S. would provide necessary licenses, waivers, and permissions for financial transactions. </li></ul><p data-start="1836" data-end="1857">Sanctions Relief</p><ul data-start="1858" data-end="2117"><li data-section-id="nz6si9" data-start="1858" data-end="1997"> U.S. to terminate all sanctions against Iran, including: <ul data-start="1919" data-end="1997"><li data-section-id="6966en" data-start="1919" data-end="1944"> U.N.-related sanctions. </li><li data-section-id="1kvd9z0" data-start="1947" data-end="1972"> Primary U.S. sanctions. </li><li data-section-id="1m7m8h8" data-start="1975" data-end="1997"> Secondary sanctions. </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="pse2u0" data-start="1998" data-end="2117"> Sanctions relief to occur according to agreed schedules in the final agreement. </li></ul><p data-start="2119" data-end="2139">Nuclear Program</p><ul data-start="2140" data-end="2498"><li data-section-id="12uhn9o" data-start="2140" data-end="2207"> Iran reaffirms it will not pursue or develop nuclear weapons. </li><li data-section-id="1p222cd" data-start="2208" data-end="2283">Both sides agree to resolve issues involving stockpiled enriched uranium.</li><li data-section-id="1p77umz" data-start="2284" data-end="2369"> Iran would reduce enrichment levels to low-enriched uranium under IAEA supervision. </li><li data-section-id="z17cvf" data-start="2370" data-end="2498"> Discussions to address Iran's civilian nuclear needs and future enrichment arrangements. </li></ul><p data-start="2500" data-end="2537">Interim Period Before Final Deal</p><ul data-start="2538" data-end="2750"><li data-section-id="2w97b3" data-start="2538" data-end="2608"> Iran maintains its current status quo regarding its nuclear program. </li><li data-section-id="2h0unc" data-start="2609" data-end="2651"> U.S. agrees not to impose new sanctions. </li><li data-section-id="12lcdgy" data-start="2652" data-end="2750"> U.S. agrees not to deploy additional forces to the region. </li></ul><p data-start="2752" data-end="2776">Iranian Oil Exports</p><ul data-start="2777" data-end="3016"><li data-section-id="1n23mud" data-start="2777" data-end="3016"> U.S. Treasury would issue waivers allowing: <ul data-start="2825" data-end="3016"><li data-section-id="1spu5h2" data-start="2825" data-end="2855"> Export of Iranian crude oil. </li><li data-section-id="1rsch7p" data-start="2858" data-end="2905"> Export of petroleum products and derivatives. </li><li data-section-id="1trxu0a" data-start="2908" data-end="3016"> Related services including banking, insurance, and transportation. </li></ul></li></ul><p data-start="3018" data-end="3044">Frozen Iranian Assets</p><ul data-start="3045" data-end="3299"><li data-section-id="elcu6t" data-start="3045" data-end="3112"> U.S. agrees to make frozen or restricted Iranian funds available. </li><li data-section-id="1jrbhit" data-start="3113" data-end="3181"> Procedures would be established for release and transfer of funds. </li><li data-section-id="f6a1il" data-start="3182" data-end="3299"> Funds could be directed to beneficiaries designated by Iran's central bank. </li></ul><p data-start="3301" data-end="3327">Compliance Monitoring</p><ul data-start="3328" data-end="3473"><li data-section-id="r90j9v" data-start="3328" data-end="3473"> Joint executive mechanism to monitor implementation of the MOU and compliance with the final agreement. </li></ul><p data-start="3475" data-end="3505">Final Agreement Structure</p><ul data-start="3506" data-end="3714"><li data-section-id="ighwme" data-start="3506" data-end="3590"> Negotiations on remaining issues begin after implementation of key early measures. </li><li data-section-id="h3lr50" data-start="3591" data-end="3714"> Final agreement to be endorsed by a binding U.N. Security Council resolution. </li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Pres.Trump is on TruthSocial touting the latest. He posts in all caps as well that: </p><blockquote>"OIL IS FLOWING, IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON (THE WORLD WILL BE SAFE!), THE STOCK MARKETS ARE ROARING, JOBS ARE AT RECORDS, AND PRICES ARE DROPPING (AFFORDABILITY!) OUR COUNTRY IS STRONG, SAFE AND RESPECTED LIKE NEVER BEEFORE. "YOU'RE WELCOME!" President DJT"</blockquote><ul><li>S&amp;P up 1.01%</li><li>Nasdaq up 1.40%</li><li>Crude oil -$2.88 at $73.15 and dipping below the 200 day MA at $73.57</li><li>Intel is up 6.64% after Trump posted earlier about a deal with Apple and intel. Trump and the US Govt bought 10% of intel at $20. The stock is trading at $128 currently. </li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Kuwait boost oil output to above 2 million barrels per day in a week</li><li>Sees faster oil output than previously thought</li><li>Will that all force majeure with immediate effect</li></ul><p>Crude oil has slipped back below the $74.00 level, trading at $73.94 and down roughly $2.00 on the day. The decline extended to a session low of $73.42, bringing the price into a test of the 200-day moving average at $73.58. From a technical perspective, that moving average represents a key support target and an important line in the sand for traders. So far, buyers have been willing to lean against the level, helping to stabilize the market within roughly 10 to 20 cents of the 200-day average. Holding above that support could encourage a corrective bounce, while a sustained break below would give sellers more control and open the door for further downside momentum.</p><p>The closing price on February 27 right before the start of the war on February 28 was at $67.04. Keep that level in mind.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-may-philly-fed-business-index-04-vs-180-expected-20260521/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior</a> -0.4</li></ul><p>Details:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">New orders 27.3 versus -1.7 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Shipments 14.9 versus 4.9 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unfilled orders 10.5 versus -2.5 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Delivery times 10.8 versus -10.4 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Inventories 23.0 versus 6.6 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prices paid 53.2 versus 47.9 prior </li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prices received 20.3 versus 26.3 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Number of employees 7.9 versus -2.8 prior </li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Average employee workweek -6.5 versus 1.2 last month</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Six-months from now indicators:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;amp;amp;amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;amp;amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;amp;amp;amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">6 month index 50.2 vs 53.2 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Capex index 6-month forward 41.2 versus 30.9 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">New orders 60.8 versus 53.5 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Shipments 60.3 versus 45.7 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unfilled orders 17.3 versus 19.2 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Delivery times 2.5 versus 1.0 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Inventories 10.0 versus 11.8 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prices paid 63.2 versus 70.0 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prices received 67.2 versus 60.5 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Number of employees 30.8 versus 31.7 last month</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Average employee workweek 34.3 versus 18.4 last month</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The report was stronger than expected and carries a hawkish bias. Manufacturing activity improved sharply, with new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories all rising significantly from the prior month. At the same time, delivery times lengthened and prices paid jumped, pointing to renewed inflation pressures in the sector. Employment also improved, although the decline in the average workweek tempered some of the strength. Overall, the data suggest stronger economic activity and firmer inflation pressures, which is supportive for the U.S. dollar and reinforces the Fed's cautious stance on inflation.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">What is the Philly Fed Index?</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, also known as the Philly Fed Index, is one of the earliest monthly indicators of manufacturing sector health in the United States. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, it surveys manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Readings above zero indicate expanding activity, while readings below zero signal contraction. The survey is closely watched by economists and market participants because it often serves as a leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing Index released later each month.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior week for initial jobless claims 229K revised to 230K </li><li>Prior week for continuing claims 1.795M revised to 1.786M</li></ul><p>For the current weeks: </p><ul><li>Initial jobless claims 226KK vs 225 est</li><li>4 week MA for initial jobless claims 223.25K vs 219.25K last week</li><li>Continuing claims 1.810M vs 1.795M estimate</li><li>4-week MA for continuing claims 1.788M vs 1.778M last week.</li></ul><p>Data is as expected but the recent move has been toward a weakening employment tilt</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +2.0% (revised to +1.6%)</li><li>PPI Y/Y +13.6% vs +11.4% prior (revised to +11.1%)</li><li>Raw materials price index M/M +0.7% vs +2.6% prior </li><li>Raw material price index Y/Y +33.4% vs +31.6% prior</li></ul><p>StatCan says: "The PPI increased 1.2% month over month in May, marking its fifth consecutive monthly increase. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to affect global commodity markets in May, reflecting impacts on crude oil costs and supply chains since March of this year. This situation contributed to price increases across multiple commodity groups, including chemical and chemical products, energy and petroleum products and primary non-ferrous metal products. Excluding energy and petroleum products, the PPI increased 0.9%.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-375-in-june-meeting-as-expected-20260618/">BoE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in June meeting, as expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/the-us-dollar-rises-to-the-highest-level-since-may-2025-on-increased-fed-rate-hike-bets-20260618/">The US dollar rises to the highest level since May 2025 on increased Fed rate hike bets</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-closes-the-gap-following-the-hawkish-feds-dot-plot-tightening-bias-caps-the-upside-20260618/">Gold closes the gap following the hawkish Fed's dot plot; tightening bias caps the upside</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/snbs-schlegel-dodges-question-on-the-addition-of-if-necessary-about-fx-intervention-20260618/">SNB's Schlegel dodges question on the addition of "if necessary" about FX intervention</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/snb-leaves-key-policy-rate-unchanged-at-0-in-june-meeting-as-widely-expected-20260618/">SNB leaves key policy rate unchanged at 0% in June meeting, as widely expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Cryptocurrency/bitcoin-price-forecast-why-the-61775-level-matters-now-20260618/">Bitcoin price forecast: why the $61,775 level matters now</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-april-ilo-unemployment-rate-49-vs-50-expected-20260618/">UK April ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 5.0% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Orders/fx-option-expiries-for-18-june-10am-new-york-cut-20260618/">FX option expiries for 18 June 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-20260618/">What are the main events for today?</a></li></ul><p>It's been a pretty calm session in terms of data and news releases. The UK employment report was better than expected with a tick lower in the unemployment rate and stronger wage growth. The data led to some firming in BoE rate hike bets but nothing major. </p><p>The SNB left the policy rate unchanged at 0.00% as widely expected but added "if necessary" to the line saying "readiness to intervene in forex markets is higher". The Swiss franc was barely changed in the aftermath but started to weaken after SNB Chairman Schlegel avoided to answer the question on why that new line was added. The market interpreted that as "dovish".</p><p>The BoE left the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% as widely expected with no changes to the April's statement. The central bank repeated that MPC stands ready to act as necessary to ensure CPI meets 2% target in the medium term. Coming into the meeting, the market was pricing 35 bps of tightening by year-end with 58% chance of a rate hike in September. That remained the same following the decision.</p><p>The main highlight of the session was the US dollar. The greenback extended the gains and reached the highest level since May 2025 amid Fed rate hike bets.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.tmgm.com/en" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">TMGM</a> today announced a new collaboration with OG Esports, marking TMGM’s first esports campaign. As the Official CFD Partner of OG's Dota 2 and Counter-Strike 2 teams, TMGM will engage esports audiences through fan-focused digital activations, exclusive rewards and branded content.</p><p dir="ltr">The collaboration reflects TMGM's commitment to engaging digitally native audiences through performance-driven communities. The initiative highlights similarities between competitive gaming and financial markets, where preparation, precision, speed and resilience drive success.</p><p dir="ltr">"Success, whether in financial markets or competitive gaming, is built on preparation, resilience and the ability to adapt in a fast-changing environment. These qualities are deeply embedded in both TMGM and OG Esports," said Nick Yang, Chief Commercial Officer of TMGM.</p><p dir="ltr">"We are pleased to collaborate with an organisation that has built a strong reputation within the esports industry, and we look forward to delivering meaningful experiences that resonate with audiences around the world."</p><p dir="ltr">Throughout the campaign, fans can look forward to cashback rewards, signed OG Dota 2 and Counter-Strike 2 team jerseys, branded content and social media activations.</p><p dir="ltr">TMGM's presence will be integrated across OG's website, social channels and streaming platforms.</p><p dir="ltr">Through the collaboration, TMGM aims to deliver meaningful experiences and lasting value to OG's global community.</p><p dir="ltr">"OG has a global fanbase that deserves the very best experiences. That's why we've partnered with TMGM. As a leading CFD trading platform, TMGM will offer our community new ways to engage both through trading and unique OG experiences. We're proud to support TMGM's first step into esports and look forward to building a strong partnership that delivers lasting value for our fans," said Xavier Oswald, Chief Executive Officer of OG Esports.</p><p dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.tmgm.com/en/about/why-choose-tmgm">About TMGM</a></p><p dir="ltr">Founded in 2013 in Sydney, Australia, TMGM Group is the Official Regional Partner of Chelsea Football Club. As a broker providing global financial product trading, TMGM is regulated by ASIC(Australia), VFSC (Vanuatu), FSC Mauritius, and FSA (Seychelles).</p><p dir="ltr">Disclaimer: Investing in leveraged products carries high risks and is not suitable for all investors. You have no interest in the underlying asset. Read the Client Agreement and other disclosure documents set forth on our website. The above information is provided by TMGM Group (Trademax Australia Limited, ABN 76 162 331 311, AFSL 436416, Trademax Global Markets (SE) Limited, FSA licence number SD224, Trademax Global Limited, VFSC 40356 &amp; Trademax Global Markets (International) Pty Ltd, Company No. 195323, Mauritius Investment Dealer Licence No. GB22201012).</p> This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 5.0%</li><li>Employment change 100k vs 75k expected</li><li>Prior 148k</li><li>Average weekly earnings +4.4% vs +4.0% 3m/y expected</li><li>Prior +4.1% (revised to +4.4%)</li><li>Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.2% 3m/y expected</li><li>Prior +3.4%</li><li>May payrolls change +2k</li><li>Prior -100k (revised to -53k)</li></ul><p>This is a good report with data beating expectations across the board, and more worryingly for the BoE, wage growth firming up again. The British Pound strengthened following the jobs data release as traders will likely bring forward rate hike probabilities (though not that much).</p><p>Keep in mind that with the end of the US-Iran war we can expect things to get even better in the next months. The BoE will likely keep the door open for tightening if necessary as the chances for rate cuts in 2026 look pretty much nil.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we have the UK employment report and the SNB and BoE rate decisions. </p><p>The UK employment report is expected to show 75K jobs added in the three months to April with the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.0%. The last report showed the unemployment rate ticking higher with a significant drop in payrolls for April, although the ONS noted that the early April estimate was more uncertain because of the change of tax year.</p><p>The SNB is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0%. There shouldn't be anything new as the SNB repeated countless times that the bar for negative rates remains very high. The central bank will likely continue to reiterate the "increased willingness to intervene in FX" when necessary.</p><p>The BoE is expected to hold the Bank Rate steady at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote split. The recent economic data has been benign with headline and core inflation metrics coming in below estimates and the labour market data continuing to show weakness. The most important development though was the end of the US-Iran war and the quick drop in oil prices with Brent now trading below 80/bbl, which is way below the 108/bbl average in BoE's optimistic forecast. The central bank will likely maintain optionality in the statement but I think there's a good chance of the vote split to err on the "dovish" side with an unanimous hold. </p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we only have the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 225K vs 229K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1789K vs 1795K prior. The US jobs data has been solid for months and the end of the war can only improve things further on positive business and consumer sentiment. I don't expect much reaction to the data unless we get big deviations. </p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>07:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (hawkish - voter)</li><li>07:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Kocher (neutral - voter)</li><li>12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)</li><li>12:15 GMT/08:15 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)</li><li>17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - ECB's Escriva (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/warsh-leaves-markets-guessing-as-fed-framework-overhaul-raises-more-questions-than-answers-20260618/">Warsh leaves markets guessing as Fed framework overhaul raises more questions than answers</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/china-rolls-out-third-trade-in-fund-tranche-as-weak-retail-data-keeps-stimulus-pressure-on-20260618/">China rolls out third trade-in fund tranche as weak retail data keeps stimulus pressure on</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japans-kihara-flags-weak-yen-household-burden-but-offers-no-fresh-intervention-signal-20260618/">Japan's Kihara flags weak yen household burden but offers no fresh intervention signal</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/apple-warns-memory-chip-crunch-makes-price-rises-unavoidable-cook-tells-wsj-20260618/">Apple warns memory chip crunch makes price rises unavoidable, Cook tells WSJ</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-68130-vs-estimate-at-67752-20260618/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8130 (vs. estimate at 6.7752)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/analysts-split-on-fed-path-after-june-hold-with-december-hike-odds-near-50-20260618/">Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50%</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/citic-securities-sees-fed-on-hold-all-year-as-warsh-faces-political-inflation-crosswinds-20260618/">CITIC Securities sees Fed on hold all year as Warsh faces political &amp; inflation crosswinds</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/brazil-central-bank-cuts-rates-but-warns-fiscal-stimulus-may-blunt-monetary-policy-20260617/">Brazil central bank cuts rates but warns fiscal stimulus may blunt monetary policy</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/spacex-stock-analysis-after-ipo-20260617/">SpaceX stock analysis after IPO</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/japans-94-middle-east-oil-dependence-leaves-firms-deeply-exposed-even-as-war-winds-down-20260617/">Japan's 94% Middle East oil dependence leaves firms deeply exposed even as war winds down</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/brent-could-top-130-if-strait-never-fully-reopens-goldman-warns-20260617/">Brent could top $130 if strait never fully reopens, Goldman warns</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/new-zealand-q1-gdp-08-qq-09-expected-and-15-yy-11-expected-20260617/">New Zealand Q1 GDP 0.8% q/q (0.9% expected) and 1.5% y/y (1.1% expected)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/iran-draws-a-red-line-on-the-deal-attack-lebanon-and-its-off-20260617/">Iran draws a red line on the deal. Attack Lebanon and its off.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/iran-us-mou-signed-but-baghaei-fires-warning-on-missiles-uranium-and-hormuz-fees-20260617/">Iran-US MOU signed but Baghaei fires warning on missiles, uranium and Hormuz fees</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/iran-confirms-mou-with-the-us-has-been-agreed-to-and-finalised-both-sides-have-signed-20260617/">Iran confirms MoU with the US has been agreed to and finalised. Both sides have signed.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/warsh-rewrites-the-fed-playbook-as-fomc-holds-rates-and-signals-hikes-ahead-20260617/">Warsh rewrites the Fed playbook as FOMC holds rates and signals hikes ahead</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/iran-signals-permanent-hormuz-changes-as-300bn-reconstruction-deal-confirmed-20260617/">Iran signals permanent Hormuz changes as $300bn reconstruction deal confirmed</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/us-stocks-fall-as-fed-signals-a-more-hawkish-policy-20260617/">US stocks fall as Fed signals a more hawkish policy</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-warsh-leans-heavily-into-the-inflation-mandate-20260617/">investingLive Americas market news wrap: Warsh leans heavily into the inflation mandate</a></li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">US-Iran MOU formally signed: Trump at Versailles, Pezeshkian in Tehran; 14-point agreement now in effect</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Oil dribbled lower on the signing; gold clawed back some post-Fed losses</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">New Zealand Q1 GDP: 0.8% q/q, 1.5% y/y; NZD/USD crept higher on broad USD softness</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Japan's Kihara delivered standard verbal intervention; USD/JPY unmoved, holding around 160.50</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">China NDRC announced third consumer goods trade-in tranche of 62.5 bln yuan by end-June</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Nikkei 225 surged past 71,000 for the first time; Topix reached 4,069</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The headline of the Asia-Pacific session was the formal signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, bringing the framework agreement to end the Middle East conflict into legal effect. President Trump signed his copy of the 14-point document during a dinner at the Palace of Versailles, with a photograph of the signed agreement transmitted to Tehran and the mediating countries. Iranian President Pezeshkian signed separately. Oil prices edged modestly lower on the news, with markets having largely priced the outcome. Gold recovered some ground after Wednesday's hawkish Fed-driven selloff.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">New Zealand's Q1 GDP delivered a beat on the annual measure at 1.5% against an expected 1.1%, though the quarterly print of 0.8% fell short of the RBNZ's 1.0% forecast. The NZD crept higher but the move was modest, driven more by broad dollar softness across the majors than by the data itself.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara ran through the standard FX watchfulness script, acknowledging the household burden of yen weakness without offering anything that moved the market. USD/JPY held around 160.50.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The session's standout market move was in Japanese equities. The Nikkei 225 broke above 71,000 for the first time on record, with the broader Topix reaching 4,069, as the Versailles signing and a softer dollar provided the constructive backdrop.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The timing of the third tranche announcement, following weak retail sales data earlier this week (<a href="https://investinglive.com/news/china-may-data-industrial-output-beats-but-retail-sales-post-first-fall-since-2022-20260616/" target="_blank" rel="follow">May retail sales falling 0.6%, the first decline since the pandemic</a>), signals Beijing is prepared to sustain the trade-in program as a demand floor rather than wind it down as initially suggested. The 820 billion yuan in driven sales is a meaningful headline but the underlying retail trend remains soft, and the marginal impact of successive tranches is likely diminishing. For commodity markets, a sustained Chinese consumption recovery would provide demand support that has been conspicuously absent during the Middle East supply shock, Goldman Sachs having already credited China's demand destruction as the primary reason oil has not breached triple digits. Any genuine pickup in Chinese consumer durables spending would therefore carry implications beyond domestic equities into energy and industrial metals.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">--- China's state planner says two batches of consumer goods trade-in funds totalling 125 bln yuan have driven over 820 bln yuan in sales, with a third tranche of 62.5 bln yuan due by end-June. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Two batches of consumer goods trade-in funds totalling 125 bln yuan have been issued</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The scheme has driven related goods sales of over 820 bln yuan</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">A third tranche of 62.5 bln yuan will be issued by end-June</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The announcement follows weaker-than-expected retail sales data released earlier this week, maintaining pressure on Beijing to support domestic consumption</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> China's state planner has announced a third tranche of consumer goods trade-in funds worth 62.5 billion yuan, to be released by the end of June, as Beijing sustains its push to underpin domestic consumption following a weak retail sales print earlier this week.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The National Development and Reform Commission said two earlier batches totalling 125 billion yuan had driven over 820 billion yuan in related goods sales, a multiplier the government is pointing to as evidence the scheme is working. The third disbursement brings the total fund commitment to 187.5 billion yuan.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The announcement lands in a context that complicates the optimistic read. Retail sales data released earlier this week came in below expectations, suggesting consumer demand remains fragile despite the stimulus pipeline. The trade-in scheme, which subsidises purchases of consumer durables including home appliances and electronics, has provided a measurable sales impulse but has not yet translated into a durable recovery in discretionary spending.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The broader significance extends into energy markets. Goldman Sachs this week identified China's 4 to 5 million barrel per day reduction in crude imports as the single most important reason oil prices have not reached triple digits during the Middle East conflict. A genuine revival in Chinese consumer and industrial activity would alter that demand picture materially, adding a new variable to an already uncertain oil price outlook as Hormuz reopening negotiations continue.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The remarks follow the standard Japanese official playbook and are unlikely to move the yen in isolation. The notable addition was Kihara's explicit acknowledgement that a weak yen, while supportive of corporate profits, increases the burden on households, a framing that edges slightly toward the dovish side of the intervention debate by validating the domestic cost argument. However, without a specific level reference or an escalation in language, the statement carries no actionable threat. Markets will continue to treat Japanese FX rhetoric as noise until accompanied by Finance Ministry involvement or a coordinated BoJ signal. The yen's next meaningful catalyst is more likely to come from the Fed's data-driven path under Warsh or the next BoJ policy meeting than from cabinet secretary commentary.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">--- Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara said Tokyo is watching FX moves closely and stands ready to act, while noting the weak yen raises household burdens even as it supports corporate profits. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary: Source: Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Kihara, remarks to media, 17 June 2026</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">No comment on specific FX levels</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Always ready to take necessary action on forex</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Watching FX moves closely</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Weak yen helps corporate profits but increases burden on households</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Will guide economic and fiscal policy as appropriate</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Japan's chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Kihara delivered the standard suite of FX caution remarks on Wednesday evening, declining to comment on specific currency levels while reaffirming Tokyo's readiness to act if necessary.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The remarks contained no escalation in tone and no reference to a specific exchange rate threshold, leaving the yen effectively unmoved. Kihara's observation that a weak yen supports corporate profits while simultaneously increasing the burden on households was the most substantive element, a dual acknowledgement that has become more politically sensitive as domestic consumption remains under pressure from elevated energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The formulation stops well short of a direct intervention signal. Japanese authorities have historically reserved their strongest language for periods of sharp, one-sided moves, and the current round of weakness does not appear to have triggered the urgency that precedes actual market operations. The Finance Ministry, whose involvement typically marks a more serious escalation, was absent from Wednesday's commentary.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">With the Federal Reserve now operating without forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh, the yen's trajectory is increasingly hostage to US data outcomes rather than Japanese rhetoric. Until the BoJ signals its own next move or the dollar path clarifies, Tokyo's verbal interventions are likely to remain just that. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Just the data in this post. </p><p>I'll have more to come on this separately. </p><p>New Zealand GDP Q1 206:</p><ul><li>1.5% y/y</li></ul><p>expected 1.1%, prior 1.3%</p><p>0.8% q/q</p><ul><li>expected 0.9%, prior 0.2%</li></ul><p>Background here:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/economic-and-event-calendar-in-asia-thursday-june-18-2026-new-zealand-q1-gdp-preview-20260617/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, June 18, 2026: New Zealand Q1 GDP preview</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">New Zealand's March quarter GDP data is expected to show the economy gained solid momentum in the early months of 2026, even as the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February looms as a far larger threat to output in the quarters ahead.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The median market forecast points to quarterly growth of 0.9%, up sharply from the 0.2% expansion recorded in the December quarter. On an annual basis, growth is seen slipping to 1.1% from 1.3% as a strong March quarter result a year earlier creates a high base. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had pencilled in 1.0% quarterly growth in its May Monetary Policy Statement, a level matched by both ANZ and Westpac in their updated forecasts, while BNZ sits marginally below at 0.9%, ASB at 0.8% and Kiwibank at the low end with 0.7%. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Economists broadly agree the figures will capture a period of genuine recovery rather than the disruption to come. Manufacturing is expected to be among the strongest contributors, with food production supported by high milk collections, a rebound in fruit and wine output, and strong machinery activity. Wholesale trade, professional services, retail and tourism are also tipped to have added meaningfully to headline growth. Construction is the notable drag, with residential and non-residential building work falling around 3.5% in the quarter.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">A key caveat running through most forecasts is the distorting effect of seasonal adjustments. Westpac estimates that the methodology used by Statistics NZ inflates March quarter results by around 0.4 percentage points, meaning underlying growth is likely closer to 0.6%.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The more consequential question is what comes next. The Iran conflict, which intensified through late February and March, is expected to register far more heavily in June quarter data, with at least one major bank forecasting a 0.3% contraction in Q2. The March print, however strong, is broadly being read as the starting position for a much harder period ahead.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The result is also the only significant data point before the RBNZ's 8 July OCR review. The bank left the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% in May following a 3-3 committee vote, and has signalled that a tightening cycle is approaching. A significant upside or downside surprise could influence the balance of voting, though several economists suggest the committee is more focused on forward-looking inflation indicators than backward-looking activity data.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/fed-chair-warsh-we-recognize-that-inflation-has-been-running-well-ahead-of-2-20260617/">Fed Chair Warsh: We recognize that inflation has been running "well ahead" of 2%</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/warsh-qa-i-see-no-reason-to-revisit-2-inflation-goal-until-we-have-delivered-20260617/">Warsh Q&amp;A: I see no reason to revisit 2% inflation goal until we have delivered</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/fomc-june-2026-dot-plot-sees-end-of-year-target-at-38-vs-34-in-march-2026-20260617/">FOMC June 2026 dot plot sees end of year target at 3.8% vs 3.4% in March 2026</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/trump-on-the-fed-raising-rates-it-could-happen-20260617/">Trump on the Fed raising rates: It could happen</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/the-full-fomc-statement-from-the-june-2026-meeting-20260617/">The full FOMC statement from the June 2026 meeting.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-rate-decision-no-change-to-the-fed-funds-target-as-expected-20260617/">Federal Reserve rate decision: No change to the Fed funds target, as expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-may-advance-retail-sales-09-vs-05-expected-20260617/">US May advance retail sales +0.9% vs +0.5% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-weekly-eia-crude-oil-inventories-8263k-vs-4566k-expected-20260617/">US weekly EIA crude oil inventories -8263K vs -4566K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-pending-home-sales-for-may-38-versus-08-expected-20260617/">US pending home sales for May 3.8% versus 0.8% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-april-business-inventories-05-vs-05-expected-20260617/">US April business inventories +0.5% vs +0.5% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecbs-sleijpen-a-repeat-of-2022-inflation-appears-less-likely-but-cant-be-excluded-20260617/">ECB's Sleijpen: A repeat of 2022 inflation appears less likely but can't be excluded</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/canada-new-housing-price-index-for-may-03-versus-04-last-month-20260617/">Canada new housing price index for May -0.3% versus -0.4% last month</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $90 to $4240</li><li>US 10-year yields up 7 bps to 4.49%</li><li>US 2-year yields up 17 bps to 4.22%</li><li>USD leads, NZD and GBP lag</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 1.4%</li></ul><p>This was not the Kevin Warsh that Trump nominated with marching orders to lower rates. Instead, he sounded like a guy utterly determined to get inflation down to 2%, even if it causes pain. </p><p>The market was surprised and it started with the statement, which was curt and finished on a line about price stability. Initially, that could be dismissed as housekeeping but as the press conference went on, it became abundantly clear this was the 2010 hawkish version of Warsh, no the guy who campaigned for the job sounding like he was Stephen Miran. </p><p>The market response was to buy the US dollar in a big way. It came in waves and ultimately sent the euro down more than 100 pips to 1.1495. The pound was hit even harder with a dive to 1.3280 from 1.3400. No currency was spared with moves in the neighborhood of 1% but JPY did show some respect for intervention with a much smaller 20 pip move to 160.66.</p><p>I fear more could be coming as US 2-year yields rose 17 bps to 4.21%. Market pricing now sits on 40 bps of hikes this year from 21 bps before the FOMC and even the July meeting now looks like it's in play. There was hardly even a nod to the employment side of the mandate.</p><p>Stock markets were slow to react to the moves in bonds but the selling picked up after the press conference and the market struggled from there with consumer discretionary lagging, including a 3.5% decline in Amazon and a 4.3% drop in Target shares. </p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p data-section-id="1vysgph" data-start="0" data-end="74">Market Reaction: Start of Press Conference vs. End of Press Conference</p><p data-start="76" data-end="347">The overall takeaway is that the market interpreted Warsh and the Fed as more hawkish than expected, with the strongest reaction seen in the U.S. dollar and front-end Treasury yields. Stocks weakened modestly, while precious metals came under additional pressure.</p><p data-section-id="f8ss9u" data-start="354" data-end="366">📉 Stocks</p><p data-section-id="16g6gpf" data-start="652" data-end="664">Takeaway</p><ul data-start="665" data-end="962"><li data-section-id="1pp8xcu" data-start="665" data-end="729"> The Dow deteriorated the most during the press conference. </li><li data-section-id="n9vs5t" data-start="730" data-end="781"> The Russell 2000 gave back most of its gains. </li><li data-section-id="s1uo6o" data-start="782" data-end="903"> The Nasdaq actually recovered slightly, suggesting technology shares held up relatively well despite rising yields. </li><li data-section-id="1js9nkg" data-start="904" data-end="962"> Overall equity reaction was negative but not disorderly. </li></ul><p data-section-id="sey2eg" data-start="969" data-end="991">💵 Foreign Exchange</p><p data-section-id="16g6gpf" data-start="1407" data-end="1419">Takeaway</p><p data-start="1420" data-end="1465">The FX market delivered the clearest verdict:</p><p data-start="1467" data-end="1503">✅ Broad-based U.S. dollar buying</p><p data-start="1505" data-end="1543">The largest dollar gains came against:</p><ul data-start="1544" data-end="1567"><li data-section-id="1o4h31" data-start="1544" data-end="1549"> GBP </li><li data-section-id="1o4ive" data-start="1550" data-end="1555"> EUR </li><li data-section-id="1o4da0" data-start="1556" data-end="1561"> NZD </li><li data-section-id="1o4dgl" data-start="1562" data-end="1567"> CHF </li></ul><p data-start="1569" data-end="1643">The market appears to have pushed back expectations for future Fed easing.</p><p data-section-id="1n1l55d" data-start="1650" data-end="1671">📈 Treasury Yields</p><p data-section-id="16g6gpf" data-start="2021" data-end="2033">Takeaway</p><ul data-start="2034" data-end="2239"><li data-section-id="1liod44" data-start="2034" data-end="2096"> The move was concentrated in the front end of the curve. </li><li data-section-id="b06b6p" data-start="2097" data-end="2178"> The 2-year yield rose over 4 basis points, the strongest move on the board. </li><li data-section-id="i4txjo" data-start="2179" data-end="2239"> The yield curve flattened as long-end yields barely moved. </li></ul><p data-start="2241" data-end="2269">That is classic pricing for:</p><blockquote data-start="2270" data-end="2314"><p data-start="2272" data-end="2314">"The Fed may stay restrictive longer."</p></blockquote><p data-section-id="1c6q1jz" data-start="2321" data-end="2347">🏆 Commodities &amp; Crypto</p><p data-section-id="16g6gpf" data-start="2598" data-end="2610">Takeaway</p><ul data-start="2611" data-end="2762"><li data-section-id="joql5e" data-start="2611" data-end="2683"> Gold and silver extended losses as yields and the dollar moved higher. </li><li data-section-id="7s89km" data-start="2684" data-end="2711"> Bitcoin softened as well. </li><li data-section-id="1npyti0" data-start="2712" data-end="2762"> Oil was largely unaffected by the Fed headlines. </li></ul><p data-section-id="aix2pz" data-start="2769" data-end="2782">Bottom Line</p><p data-section-id="118f65x" data-start="2784" data-end="2803">Biggest Winners</p><ul data-start="2804" data-end="2908"><li data-section-id="rnyk7q" data-start="2804" data-end="2821">U.S. Dollar</li><li data-section-id="w66iag" data-start="2822" data-end="2854">Short-term Treasury yields</li><li data-section-id="rlkv50" data-start="2855" data-end="2908"> Fed credibility on maintaining a restrictive stance </li></ul><p data-section-id="zqvjp7" data-start="2910" data-end="2928">Biggest Losers</p><ul data-start="2929" data-end="3022"><li data-section-id="c7ibhk" data-start="2929" data-end="2939">Gold</li><li data-section-id="f6fb1b" data-start="2940" data-end="2952">Silver</li><li data-section-id="dzd822" data-start="2953" data-end="3003"> Dollar-sensitive currencies (EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD) </li><li data-section-id="1n0vul7" data-start="3004" data-end="3022"> Small-cap stocks </li></ul><p data-section-id="1gea0q0" data-start="3024" data-end="3049">Market Interpretation</p><p data-start="3050" data-end="3195">Warsh's comments reinforced the message from the dot plot that policymakers are not eager to cut rates anytime soon. The market responded by:</p><ul data-start="3196" data-end="3309"><li data-section-id="1yrmmkt" data-start="3196" data-end="3212"> Buying dollars </li><li data-section-id="gx14wo" data-start="3213" data-end="3238"> Selling precious metals </li><li data-section-id="ja6ypc" data-start="3239" data-end="3273"> Pushing short-term yields higher </li><li data-section-id="1dkpgyj" data-start="3274" data-end="3309"> Leaning modestly against equities </li></ul><p data-start="3311" data-end="3562" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">The strongest signal came from the combination of a stronger dollar and higher 2-year yields, which is typically the clearest indication that traders came away viewing the Fed as more hawkish than they did at the start of the press conference.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Market levels at the time of the Press Conference shows: </p><p data-section-id="154wwoj" data-start="0" data-end="19">U.S. Stocks</p><ul data-start="20" data-end="223"><li data-section-id="1k132qk" data-start="20" data-end="71">Dow Jones: 51,919.18 (-86.01, -0.17%) </li><li data-section-id="156r7bq" data-start="72" data-end="120">S&amp;P 500: 7,470.93 (-40.41, -0.54%) </li><li data-section-id="phal4c" data-start="121" data-end="170">NASDAQ: 26,228.62 (-147.72, -0.56%) </li><li data-section-id="1ub5rgb" data-start="171" data-end="223">Russell 2000: 2,945.98 (+6.78, +0.23%) </li></ul><p data-start="225" data-end="393">Takeaway: Major indices remain under modest pressure</p><p data-section-id="x3oj6z" data-start="395" data-end="423">U.S. Treasury Market</p><ul data-start="424" data-end="739"><li data-section-id="1i0alju" data-start="424" data-end="462">2Y Yield: 4.1379% (+9.1 bps) </li><li data-section-id="6ehnju" data-start="502" data-end="540">5Y Yield: 4.2146% (+6.4 bps) </li><li data-section-id="wowiem" data-start="580" data-end="619">10Y Yield: 4.4552% (+2.7 bps) </li><li data-section-id="owi9ib" data-start="660" data-end="699">30Y Yield: 4.9264% (-0.3 bps) </li></ul><p data-start="741" data-end="924">Takeaway: The front end is selling off sharply, pushing short-term yields higher. The move suggests traders are scaling back expectations for lower rates, and raising of expectations</p><p data-section-id="3bblk3" data-start="926" data-end="950">Foreign Exchange</p><ul data-start="951" data-end="1188"><li data-section-id="1ohqtzu" data-start="951" data-end="984">EURUSD: 1.1547 (-0.52%) </li><li data-section-id="11voya2" data-start="985" data-end="1018">GBPUSD: 1.3350 (-0.57%) </li><li data-section-id="1xpo08d" data-start="1019" data-end="1052">AUDUSD: 0.7041 (-0.35%) </li><li data-section-id="1yngr71" data-start="1053" data-end="1086">NZDUSD: 0.5790 (-0.69%) </li><li data-section-id="npxzfi" data-start="1087" data-end="1120">USDCHF: 0.7962 (+0.42%) </li><li data-section-id="1cpl5pv" data-start="1121" data-end="1154">USDCAD: 1.4058 (+0.46%) </li><li data-section-id="4b4j5k" data-start="1155" data-end="1188">USDJPY: 160.46 (+0.01%) </li></ul><p data-start="1190" data-end="1318">Takeaway: The dollar is broadly stronger, gaining against most major currencies as higher U.S. yields support the greenback.</p><p data-section-id="eh2ti" data-start="1320" data-end="1348">Commodities &amp; Crypto</p><ul data-start="1349" data-end="1541"><li data-section-id="1gvnm80" data-start="1349" data-end="1389">WTI Crude Oil: $75.75</li><li data-section-id="25hd1m" data-start="1437" data-end="1471">Gold: $4,288.35 (-0.90%) </li><li data-section-id="pnt60h" data-start="1472" data-end="1505">Silver: $69.04 (-1.30%) </li><li data-section-id="zpjpzf" data-start="1506" data-end="1541">Bitcoin: $65,407 (-0.31%)</li></ul><p data-section-id="15j51mk" data-start="1680" data-end="1708">Overall Market Theme</p><ul data-start="1709" data-end="1840"><li data-section-id="i76cjm" data-start="1709" data-end="1728">Stocks: Lower </li><li data-section-id="1in8eyj" data-start="1729" data-end="1769">Short-term Treasury yields: Higher </li><li data-section-id="224bjc" data-start="1770" data-end="1797">U.S. Dollar: Stronger </li><li data-section-id="b5j8it" data-start="1798" data-end="1823">Gold/Silver: Weaker </li><li data-section-id="1t7c6mz" data-start="1824" data-end="1840">Oil: Lower </li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Iran is agreeing, at a minimum, to destroy its enriched uranium stockpile through downblending</li><li>Iran is stating that it will destroy enriched uranium</li><li>If we get a final deal and if the Iranians behave, we will permit sanctions relief</li><li>Sequencing of steps will be a big part of the talks</li><li>Meeting this weekend in Switzerland will be critical</li><li>We will do some things to build trust and see if we can pull off a deal</li><li>Netanyahu has not asked us for a copy of MOU</li><li>MOU has been signed but either side can walk away until a binding deal is in place</li></ul><p>JD Vance earlier said the deal was already signed but there is still talk about some kind of formal signing in Switzerland this weekend.</p><p>There have been several leaked versions floating around since the start of the week but Trump continues to deny they're real.</p><p>“It’s a very strong deal,” Trump said at the G7. “Nobody knows what it is, but it’s very strong.”</p><p>This is not really a final peace deal. It is a sequencing document: stop the war now, reopen shipping, give Iran immediate economic breathing room, freeze the nuclear/sanctions escalation cycle, then try to settle the hard questions within 60 days.</p><p>The official text is identical to what Bloomberg had yesterday. It was denied by admin officials but it was real and accurate. The $300 billion number is also real.</p><p>The full text:</p><p>The full draft document is published here verbatim: </p><p>1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and ‌the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles. </p><p>2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and ​the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs. </p><p>3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States ​undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. </p><p>4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum ⁠of Understanding, the United States lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the ​traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 ​days after the final agreement. </p><p>5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran. </p><p>6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan ​agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final ​agreement, will be formulated within 60 days. </p><p>7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including ‌resolutions of the ⁠United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary. </p><p>8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article. Advertisement · Scroll to continue </p><p>9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran ​will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, ​and the United States will not impose ⁠new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region. </p><p>10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, ​and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like. </p><p>11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a ​final agreement, frozen or restricted funds ⁠and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis. </p><p>12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree ⁠that an implementation ​mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement. </p><p>13. Following the signing ​of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will ​enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles. </p><p>14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>G7 leaders are thrilled we made a deal. </li><li>The last night was brutal. $200M of bombs were dropped.</li><li>New leaders are smart and far less radicalized</li><li>Do not want to see economic catastrophe</li><li>The stock market is more brilliant than all the people except me</li><li>I blew up Soleimani.</li><li>Do not want to bomb Iran again</li><li>Netanyahu gets a little excited sometimes but has been a good partner</li><li>Iran was going to take out the entire Middle East including Israel.</li><li>We are not giving Iran any money.</li></ul><p>He is on a ramble....Rubio's eyes are glazing over. </p><p>Stocks are higher with Dow up 0.42%, S&amp;P 0.07% and Nasdaq +0.08%. FOMC ahead. </p><ul><li>Deal will be signed shortly, maybe Friday. We will most likely sign a deal.</li><li>Sent copy of MOU to Isreal.</li><li>Isreal could do a better job on Hezbollah</li><li>I feel very bad for Lebanon. </li><li>Lebanon has been trashed.</li><li>Technical discussion on nuclear stockpiles will begin immediately</li><li>They need investment because we did $1T to $1.5T of damage to them.</li><li>I think this group is regime change. </li><li>Maritime traffic in Strait of Hormuz has increased substantially. </li><li>Working on a parallel effort with Gulf nations to address nonnuclear issues.</li><li>Hopes peace agreement will be beginning of larger peace across middle east.</li><li>Thinks Russia and Ukraine what to do something, they just don't know how. </li><li>Russia is losing more soldiers than Ukraine.</li></ul><p>Q&amp;A</p><ul><li>Will let Iran sell oil if they do things right.</li><li>US not putting up money for Iran.</li><li>Thanks for Putin and Xi for being neutral. </li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>It's not clear what was behind the quick jump in oil prices. There are some rumors about the MOU signing being remote and some other chatter but nothing particularly relevant. There are now multiple reports saying there is no change in Swiss talks or the schedule.</p><p>The move is already fading.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>WTI crude oil was trading up $1.43 to $77.47 ahead of the release, that's a session high.</p><ul><li>Prior was -7227</li><li>Distillates vs -470K expected</li><li>Gasoline vs -1001K expected</li></ul><p>Private data from late yesterday:</p><ul><li>Crude -8330K</li><li>Gasoline +2479K</li><li>Distillates -500K</li></ul><p>This is the third consecutive large draw in US crude inventories and the largest combined three-week draw on record. No wonder Trump was in a rush to make a deal with Iran.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.