<ul><li><a href="/stocks/nasdaq-suffers-worst-month-since-march-2025-as-technology-stocks-tumble" rel="follow">Nasdaq suffers worst month since March 2025 as technology stocks tumble</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-tests-key-support-as-binance-security-fears-weigh" rel="follow">Bitcoin tests key support as Binance security fears weigh</a></li><li><a href="/news/week-ahead-elections-rate-decisions-and-jobs-take-center-stage" rel="follow">Week ahead: Elections, rate decisions and jobs take center stage</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/earnings-next-week-can-apple-palantir-and-amd-restore-confidence" rel="follow">Earnings next week: Can Apple, Palantir and AMD restore confidence?</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-logan-at-least-two-more-quarter-point-rate-hikes-needed" rel="follow">Fed’s Logan: At least two more quarter-point rate hikes needed</a></li><li><a href="/news/carney-canada-eu-working-toward-deepest-possible-partnership-short-of-accession" rel="follow">Carney: Canada, EU working toward deepest possible partnership, short of accession</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-daly-ai-matters-for-near-and-medium-term-policy" rel="follow">Fed’s Daly: AI matters for near- and medium-term policy</a></li><li><a href="/news/fitch-on-uk-budget-policy-continuity-leaves-a-tough-delivery-challenge" rel="follow">Fitch on UK Budget: Policy continuity leaves a tough delivery challenge</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-barkin-direction-of-travel-is-straightforward-for-the-fed" rel="follow">Fed's Barkin: Direction of travel is straightforward for the Fed</a></li><li><a href="/news/canada-gdp-for-august-0-0-vs-0-2-estimate" rel="follow">Canada GDP for August 0.0% vs 0.2% estimate</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-employment-cost-index-for-q3-0-8-vs-0-8-expected" rel="follow">US employment cost index for Q3 +0.8% vs +0.8% expected</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/morning-kickstart-tech-hammered-as-amazon-and-intel-tumble-oil-rises-despite-peace-talk" rel="follow">Morning Kickstart: Tech hammered as Amazon and Intel tumble; oil rises despite peace talk</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-european-session-wrap-ai-spending-fears-spook-tech-stocks-dollar-falls-alongside-yields-gold" rel="follow">investingLive European session wrap: AI spending fears spook tech stocks; dollar falls alongside yields, gold</a></li></ul><p>October ended with investors taking a harder look at the cost of the AI boom. Technology led a broad stock-market decline as disappointing reactions to Amazon and Intel earnings reinforced concerns about spending, profitability and cash flow. Strong demand remains part of the story, but investors are becoming more demanding about when that demand translates into returns.</p><p>The cross-market moves were revealing. Treasury yields declined even as several Fed officials argued for further tightening. Oil moved higher, keeping inflation concerns alive, while gold failed to benefit from lower yields. Bonds attracted defensive demand, but the protection did not extend across every traditional haven.</p><p>Dollar finishes mixed after recovering earlier losses</p><p>The dollar was mixed in the supplied late-session snapshot. Its strongest performance was against the euro, with EURUSD down 0.13% at 1.1164. Its weakest performance was against sterling, with GBPUSD up 0.11% at 1.3390.</p><p>USDJPY slipped 0.06% to 157.59, while USDCHF rose 0.05% to 0.8246. USDCAD edged down 0.06% to 1.3979 despite disappointing Canadian growth data. AUDUSD gained 0.07% to 0.7032, while NZDUSD fell 0.07% to 0.5629.</p><p>The mixed finish marked a recovery from the dollar’s broader weakness earlier in the session. Falling U.S. yields provided a headwind, but the currency market did not deliver a uniform risk-off response.</p><p>Treasury yields fall despite calls for more tightening</p><p>Treasury yields were lower across the curve in the supplied snapshot. The 2-year yield fell 6.43 basis points to 4.5917%, the 5-year declined 7.87 basis points to 4.7233%, the 10-year dropped 5.86 basis points to 4.9303%, and the 30-year eased 1.76 basis points to 5.3114%.</p><p>The larger declines in shorter and intermediate maturities steepened the curve. The move was consistent with defensive demand as stocks weakened, even though the Fed commentary offered little reassurance that the tightening cycle was finished. Lower yields alone were insufficient to offset the concerns facing technology shares.</p><p>U.S. stocks: Nasdaq leads the retreat</p><p>The supplied end-of-day index readings showed:</p><ul><li><p>Dow industrial average: −573.08 points, or −1.09%, at 51,775.17.</p></li><li><p>S&amp;P 500: −140.32 points, or −1.82%, at 7,580.07.</p></li><li><p>Nasdaq Composite: −747.73 points, or −2.86%, at 25,437.00.</p></li><li><p>Russell 2000: −47.37 points, or −1.66%, at 2,811.84.</p></li><li><p>Nasdaq 100: −1,017.66 points, or −3.46%, at 28,384.85.</p></li></ul><p>The selling extended beyond technology, but the Nasdaq indices carried the heaviest burden. The Dow held up better on a relative basis, although a decline of more than 570 points still reflected a difficult session.</p><p>AI faces questions about financing and returns</p><p>Amazon and Intel remained central to the earnings concerns. Investors questioned how much spending would be required to sustain AI growth and how quickly that investment would produce stronger profits and cash flow.</p><p>A separate <a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/anthropic-may-not-secure-investment-grade-rating-after-ipo-ft-reports/" rel="follow">Financial Times report covered by InvestingLive</a> added a financing concern: Blackstone reportedly told Anthropic that it might not obtain an investment-grade credit rating after its IPO. This was a reported possibility, rather than a ratings decision, but it sharpened the focus on borrowing costs. Intel was down more than 30% in that afternoon report, with substantial losses across chip and infrastructure suppliers including AMD, Arm, Marvell, Astera Labs and Coherent. Those were intraday readings.</p><p>European stocks mostly lower</p><p>European markets also finished mostly lower, with the UK holding a modest gain:</p><ul><li><p>Germany’s DAX: −221.47 points, or −0.85%, at 25,818.22.</p></li><li><p>France’s CAC 40: −0.58 points, or −0.01%, at 7,969.43.</p></li><li><p>UK’s FTSE 100: +7.73 points, or +0.07%, at 10,729.79.</p></li><li><p>Spain’s IBEX: −204.70 points, or −1.09%, at 18,652.90.</p></li><li><p>Italy’s FTSE MIB: −501.39 points, or −1.02%, at 49,290.91.</p></li></ul><p>Fed speak: More tightening remains on the table</p><p>Today’s Fed commentary carried a predominantly hawkish message, although the speakers differed in how directly they addressed the next policy move. Barkin favored gradual adjustment, Musalem argued for another increase soon, and Logan outlined a minimum of two additional quarter-point hikes. Daly concentrated on AI’s implications for the Fed’s inflation and employment objectives.</p><p>Richmond Fed President Barkin described the direction of policy as straightforward, with the pace still open to debate. He favored a gradual approach but pointed to resilient consumer spending, broad business cost pressures and companies preparing to pass those costs to customers. His comments on AI were particularly relevant to the day’s market debate: the investment surge is adding demand and straining supply chains, creating inflation pressures that monetary policy can lean against. His assessment suggested that economic resilience continues to give the Fed room to address persistent inflation.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Daly focused on how AI affects both price stability and employment. She emphasized that those effects matter for policy in the near and medium term. Her remarks did not establish a preference for a hike or a pause. The takeaway was that AI’s effects on the economy are already relevant to current monetary policy decisions.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivered a more explicit call for action, saying rates would need to rise again soon. He viewed monetary policy and overall financial conditions as accommodative, with inflation unlikely to ease sufficiently without additional Fed action. Higher bond yields had tightened conditions, but not enough in his assessment. His preference was to act earlier in smaller increments, reducing the risk that delayed action eventually requires a sharper adjustment. A strong economy and labor market supported that approach, while inflation risks remained tilted higher.</p><p>Dallas Fed President Logan was the most specific about the amount of tightening she considered necessary. She called for at least two more quarter-point increases to make policy modestly restrictive, followed by a pause to assess whether further action was needed. Skipping a meeting, in her view, would not change the destination. Gradual adjustments could help households, businesses and investors adapt, but she regarded the lack of progress toward the 2% inflation target as unacceptable. Her message made clear that a pause should not automatically be interpreted as the end of tightening.</p><p>For traders, the distinction matters: Treasury yields fell on the day, but these remarks did not amount to a dovish shift from the Fed.</p><p>Economic data: Labor costs moderate, growth signals soften</p><p>The U.S. Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% in the third quarter, matching expectations and slowing from 0.9%. Wage growth eased to 0.7% from 0.9%, while benefit costs increased 0.9%, down from 1.0%. The report offered some reassurance on compensation pressures, although it did not resolve the broader inflation concerns raised by Fed officials.</p><p>Chicago PMI fell to 55.3, below the 56.1 estimate and down from 58.8. Activity remained above the 50 dividing line, but the pace of expansion slowed.</p><p>Canada’s August GDP was unchanged versus expectations for 0.2% growth. The advance estimate pointed to a 0.1% decline in September, reinforcing the picture of an economy struggling to build momentum.</p><p>German preliminary inflation also came in softer than expected. Annual CPI and harmonized inflation both slowed to 2.8%, below forecasts of 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively.</p><p>Oil rises as Middle East risks persist</p><p>WTI crude traded at $102.89, up $0.89 or 0.87% in the supplied snapshot.</p><p><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/crude-oil-extends-gains-as-traders-hedge-into-weekend-amid-risks-of-us-strikes-on-iran/" rel="follow">InvestingLive’s oil coverage</a> highlighted Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and reports of U.S. preparations for potential strikes on Iran. Those developments kept supply risks in focus heading into the weekend. Elevated energy prices also complicated the inflation outlook, even as Treasury yields declined.</p><p>Gold and silver join the selling</p><p>Spot gold fell approximately $146.24, or 3.64%, to $3,874.33. Silver dropped $3.0644, or 5.88%, to $49.0756. Copper also declined 1.75% to $6.4870.</p><p>Gold’s weakness stood out because Treasury yields were lower. That would normally provide support, but sellers retained control. <a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-gets-hit-again-by-forced-liquidations-as-equity-losses-mount-fundamental-outlook-increasingly-positive/" rel="follow">InvestingLive’s gold analysis</a> identified liquidation pressure associated with equity losses as a possible explanation: investors needing cash can sell liquid holdings such as gold to meet obligations elsewhere. That remains an interpretation of the selling, rather than a confirmed explanation for every transaction.</p><p>Silver’s larger percentage decline, alongside weaker copper, also left the more industrially sensitive metals under pressure.</p><p>Bitcoin remains under pressure</p><p>Bitcoin traded at $76,803, down $989 or 1.27% in the supplied snapshot.</p><p>The broader retreat from risk assets was compounded by concerns surrounding the reported Binance security breach. <a href="https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-tumbles-as-binance-hack-triggers-risk-off-wave-across-crypto-markets-what-s-next/" rel="follow">InvestingLive’s crypto coverage</a> described exchange-security anxiety and leveraged liquidations as additional sources of pressure. Falling Treasury yields offered little relief as investors weighed both market-wide weakness and crypto-specific uncertainty.</p><p>Next week: U.S. elections, jobs and central-bank decisions</p><p>The November 2–6 calendar brings several important tests for markets, led by Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections and Friday’s employment report. The results will help shape expectations for government policy, economic growth and the Fed’s next move.</p><p>Monday starts with the U.S. ISM manufacturing report at 10:00 AM ET. Wednesday brings ADP employment at 8:15 AM ET and ISM services at 10:00 AM ET. Beyond the headline readings, traders will watch the employment and prices components for evidence of whether activity is slowing while inflation pressures persist.</p><p>Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine control of the House and Senate, with implications for taxes, spending, regulation and the administration’s legislative agenda. The September JOLTS report, due at 10:00 AM ET, provides another measure of labor demand ahead of payrolls.</p><p>Central banks also remain in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision Tuesday, November 3, Australian time—Monday evening in the U.S.—with several major banks expecting a 25-basis-point hike to 4.85%. The Bank of England follows Thursday with its rate decision and updated economic forecasts. Both events will test how policymakers balance inflation risks against the effects of tighter policy.</p><p>Thursday brings U.S. jobless claims and preliminary third-quarter productivity and labor costs at 8:30 AM ET. Friday is the main economic event: U.S. payrolls, unemployment and average hourly earnings at 8:30 AM ET, alongside Canada’s employment report. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment follows at 10:00 AM ET, with inflation expectations another important barometer. Together, the reports will help determine whether the economy remains resilient enough to support further Fed tightening.</p><p>What traders carry forward</p><p>The next session begins with three connected questions: can technology shares stabilize, can Middle East risks ease enough to take pressure off oil, and will incoming data justify the additional tightening several Fed officials favor? Friday showed that lower Treasury yields alone are not enough to restore confidence when earnings, financing costs and inflation remain in question.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Next week’s calendar gives traders plenty to work with. US congressional elections bring political uncertainty, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are expected to raise rates, and Friday delivers employment reports from both the US and Canada.</p><p>The central question is whether growth, inflation and employment support a more restrictive policy outlook. For traders, the releases will provide the catalysts. The technical levels will help define the bias, risk and targets as those headlines hit.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Monday, November 2: US manufacturing and the RBA decision</p><p>The week starts with US manufacturing before attention shifts to Australia late in the North American evening.</p><ul><li><p>10:00 AM ET – US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Forecast: 54.7 – Previous: 54.5.</p></li><li><p>10:30 PM ET – RBA cash rate decision – Forecast: 4.85% – Previous: 4.60%.</p></li><li><p>10:30 PM ET – RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement.</p></li><li><p>11:30 PM ET – RBA press conference.</p></li></ul><p>The manufacturing index is expected to edge higher, remaining above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. Traders will also watch prices paid, new orders and employment for clues about inflation pressure and the durability of growth.</p><p>For the AUDUSD, the calendar points to a 25-basis-point RBA hike. The reaction will depend on the guidance as well as the decision. Does the central bank leave the door open to additional tightening, or suggest policy is approaching a sufficient level?</p><p>Tuesday, November 3: US elections, job openings and New Zealand employment</p><p>US congressional elections dominate the political calendar, while JOLTS provides another reading on labor demand.</p><ul><li><p>2:30 AM ET – Swiss CPI, monthly – Forecast: 0.0% – Previous: 0.0%.</p></li><li><p>10:00 AM ET – US JOLTS job openings – Forecast: 7.11 million – Previous: 7.08 million.</p></li><li><p>All day – US congressional elections.</p></li><li><p>11:00 AM ET – Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks.</p></li><li><p>4:45 PM ET – New Zealand employment change, quarterly – Forecast: 0.4% – Previous: 0.5%.</p></li><li><p>4:45 PM ET – New Zealand unemployment rate – Forecast: 5.5% – Previous: 5.6%.</p></li></ul><p>US elections: Control of Congress is the key prize</p><p>Tuesday’s elections will determine control of the House and Senate—and how much room President Trump has to advance his legislative agenda during the second half of his term.</p><p>Senate: Key contests to watch include Georgia, North Carolina, Maine and Michigan. Georgia’s seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff and Maine’s seat held by Republican Susan Collins are central battlegrounds. Open-seat contests in North Carolina and Michigan also give both parties important opportunities. New Hampshire’s open seat is another race worth watching.</p><p>House: Control could come down to a relatively small number of competitive districts, particularly in California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona. Suburban voters and districts with closely divided presidential results will be especially important.</p><p>For markets: Republican control of both chambers would give the administration more room to pursue tax, spending and regulatory legislation. Democratic control of either chamber would create divided government, increasing the need for negotiation over budgets and major legislation. Investors will watch the implications for Treasury borrowing, energy, healthcare and corporate taxes.</p><p>What would it take to flip control of Congress?</p><p>Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control of both chambers.</p><p>In the House, Republicans emerged with a 220–215 majority. A net Democratic gain of three seats would shift that balance to 218–217, giving Democrats a narrow majority.</p><p>In the Senate, Republicans held a 53–47 advantage. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a 51–49 majority. Gaining only three would leave the chamber split 50–50, with Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote keeping Republicans in control.</p><p>The key word is net: each seat a party loses must be offset by another pickup. For markets, a Democratic takeover of either chamber would bring divided government, making major tax and spending legislation more dependent on negotiations.</p><p>New Zealand’s report is expected to show slightly slower employment growth alongside a lower unemployment rate. Wages and participation will help explain whether that combination reflects a firmer labor market.</p><p>Wednesday, November 4: Eurozone inflation and US services</p><p>Inflation in Europe and activity in the larger US services sector move into focus.</p><ul><li><p>5:00 AM ET – Eurozone core CPI flash estimate, annual – Forecast: 2.5% – Previous: 2.5%.</p></li><li><p>5:00 AM ET – Eurozone headline CPI flash estimate, annual – Forecast: 4.0% – Previous: 3.8%.</p></li><li><p>10:00 AM ET – US ISM Services PMI – Forecast: 54.9 – Previous: 54.9.</p></li></ul><p>The expected rise in headline eurozone inflation would complicate the policy picture, even with core inflation holding steady.</p><p>In the US, an unchanged services reading would signal continued expansion. The details matter: stronger prices paid alongside softer employment could produce a very different market reaction than broad strength across new orders, business activity and hiring.</p><p>Thursday, November 5: BOE decision and Canada’s budget</p><p>The Bank of England headlines a busy session that also includes US claims, several central bank speakers and Canada’s annual budget.</p><ul><li><p>7:00 AM ET – BOE bank rate decision – Forecast: 4.00% – Previous: 3.75%.</p></li><li><p>7:00 AM ET – BOE MPC vote split, hike–hold–cut – Forecast: 7–0–2 – Previous: 3–0–6.</p></li><li><p>7:00 AM ET – BOE Monetary Policy Report and Policy Summary.</p></li><li><p>7:30 AM ET – BOE Governor Bailey speaks.</p></li><li><p>7:40 AM ET – SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks.</p></li><li><p>8:30 AM ET – US initial unemployment claims – Forecast: 197,000 – Previous: 194,000.</p></li><li><p>10:30 AM ET – Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks.</p></li><li><p>1:00 PM ET – ECB President Lagarde speaks.</p></li><li><p>4:00 PM ET – Canada annual budget release.</p></li></ul><p>The supplied calendar points to a 25-basis-point BOE hike, with a sharp change in the expected voting balance. Sterling traders will watch whether the inflation forecasts and Bailey’s comments reinforce the need for further tightening.</p><p>Canada’s budget adds a fiscal catalyst for the CAD, with spending, borrowing and growth assumptions likely to attract attention ahead of Friday’s employment report.</p><p>Friday, November 6: US and Canadian jobs headline the week</p><p>Friday brings the week’s biggest scheduled data test, with both employment reports arriving at 8:30 AM ET.</p><ul><li><p>8:30 AM ET – US nonfarm payrolls – Forecast: +63,000 – Previous: +29,000.</p></li><li><p>8:30 AM ET – US unemployment rate – Forecast: 4.2% – Previous: 4.2%.</p></li><li><p>8:30 AM ET – US average hourly earnings, monthly – Forecast: 0.3% – Previous: 0.1%.</p></li><li><p>8:30 AM ET – Canada employment change – Forecast: +14,500 – Previous: −68,300.</p></li><li><p>8:30 AM ET – Canada unemployment rate – Forecast: 6.5% – Previous: 6.5%.</p></li><li><p>10:00 AM ET – Canada Ivey PMI – Forecast: 57.7 – Previous: 58.2.</p></li><li><p>10:00 AM ET – Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment – Forecast: 47.8 – Previous: 48.0.</p></li><li><p>10:00 AM ET – Preliminary University of Michigan inflation expectations – Forecast: Not listed – Previous: 4.7%.</p></li><li><p>11:00 AM ET – BOJ Governor Ueda speaks.</p></li><li><p>All day – New Zealand parliamentary elections, as listed on the supplied calendar.</p></li></ul><p>US payroll growth is expected to improve but remain modest, while wage growth is forecast to accelerate. Soft hiring alongside firmer wages would leave traders weighing slower growth against persistent inflation pressure. Payroll revisions will also matter.</p><p>Canada is expected to recover only part of the previous employment decline. With both reports released simultaneously, the USDCAD could see a sharp initial reaction as traders compare the relative strength of the two economies.</p><p>The trading focus: Let the reaction confirm the story</p><p>There are several opportunities for expectations to shift during the week. A rate hike can support a currency, but the follow-through will depend on what comes next. Stronger employment can lift yields, while the wage details may change how investors interpret the same report.</p><p>Watch the first move, then watch whether the price can hold its break. A sustained break shifts the bias. A failed break puts the other side back in play. With elections, central banks and jobs competing for attention, clearly defined risk will be especially valuable.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Comments from Canada PM Carney cross the wires:</p><ul><li>Canada, EU working towards deepest possible partnership, short of accession.</li><li>We will determine substance, scale and scope of this form of membership over coming months.</li><li>Accepted President Costa’s invitation to attend European Council meetings in June to conclude negotiations</li></ul><p>Analysis: Carney is signaling an ambition to deepen Canada’s relationship with the EU, while stopping short of accession. Here, EU accession means becoming a full member of the European Union. Carney’s phrase “short of accession” means Canada wants the closest possible partnership with the EU without becoming a member.</p><p>The direction is clear, but the practical details remain open. For businesses and investors, the substance of any agreement will matter more than the headline ambition.</p><p>The next barometer is what the two sides propose over the coming months. These comments offer a longer-term cooperation signal which should be good to Canada, but contain too little detail to establish a clear near-term trading implication for the CAD. It would also irk Pres. Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Looking at the price action of the USDCAD it is trading near the low for the day and near the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the August low at 1.39497. The current price is at 1.3948 just below that level.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Fitch’s assessment of the UK Budget points to a familiar problem: setting out a path to stronger public finances is one thing. Delivering it is another.</p><p>The ratings agency sees broad continuity in government policy, but warns that the plans still leave a sizeable delivery challenge. It continues to anticipate significant slippage against spending plans and says fiscal consolidation becomes much more challenging to deliver from 2027.</p><p>That puts the emphasis on execution. The key barometer will be whether actual spending and borrowing follow the government’s projected path.</p><p>Spending discipline remains the central concern</p><p>Fitch’s warning about spending slippage suggests it expects the government to struggle to keep expenditure within its planned limits.</p><p>If spending exceeds those assumptions, the government would need to offset the difference through higher revenues, savings elsewhere or additional borrowing. Each carries consequences for the economic outlook and the credibility of the fiscal plan.</p><p>For investors, the question is whether the projected improvement in public finances can survive the pressures that emerge along the way.</p><p>Election politics add another layer of risk</p><p>Fitch also sees moderately greater policy risk closer to the next general election.</p><p>The implication is that the political willingness to deliver difficult fiscal measures could weaken as an election approaches. Pressure to support households, protect public services or offer new commitments could complicate the planned adjustment.</p><p>That matters because Fitch already sees the consolidation becoming harder from 2027. The economic and political challenges could increasingly overlap.</p><p>Investment measures do not materially change the picture</p><p>Fitch notes that support through the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank will increase. However, it does not see the Burnham government as meaningfully lifting its infrastructure spending plans.</p><p>It also expects measures allowing mayors to spend a portion of income tax revenues from 2028 to be broadly fiscally neutral initially.</p><p>Those initiatives therefore do little to change Fitch’s central concern: the difficulty of delivering the overall fiscal path.</p><p>The market takeaway</p><p>My reading is that this is a warning about delivery and credibility. Broad policy continuity provides a framework, but the spending numbers still have to hold.</p><p>For gilt and sterling traders, these headlines identify a risk to monitor rather than establish a market direction on their own. If confidence in the fiscal path deteriorates, upward pressure on borrowing costs could become a concern. Sterling’s response would depend on whether higher yields reflect stronger economic expectations or greater fiscal risk.</p><p>The budget sets the targets. The spending and borrowing data will show whether the government can deliver.</p><p>As a review, the UK Budget was delivered on Wednesday, October 28. Its main aim was to provide targeted cost-of-living relief while preserving plans to reduce borrowing, with difficult spending decisions still ahead. </p><ul><li>Household support: A £100 energy payment for eligible households in England’s council tax bands A–D, with funding for comparable support elsewhere in the UK. The electricity VAT cut and temporary 5p fuel-duty reduction are extended until July 2027. </li><li>Targeted tax increases: The bank corporation tax surcharge rises temporarily from 3% to 6%. From April 2027, tax rates on savings and property income will be 24%, 44% and 49%. </li><li>Wages and businesses: The National Living Wage rises 3.9% to £13.21 an hour in April 2027. Retail, hospitality and leisure businesses receive expanded business-rate relief.</li><li>Housing: An additional £1.5 billion supports social and affordable housing, alongside a new equity-loan scheme for first-time buyers and a First Time Buyer ISA from April 2029. </li><li>Weaker growth, higher inflation: The OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.6%, while raising its inflation forecast to 3.4% from 2.0%. It judged that the budget measures make little difference to those forecasts. </li><li>Limited fiscal room: The government meets its fiscal rules on the forecasts, but the buffer against its day-to-day budget target is only £15 billion in 2029/30. Borrowing is projected to average approximately £13 billion a year more than previously forecast over 2026/27–2030/31.</li></ul><p>THE GBPUSD has moved higher this week after bottoming on Wednesday</p><p>Technically, the GBPUSD bottomed on Wednesday near the swing level at 1.32729, giving buyers a technical floor to lean against. The subsequent recovery initially attracted sellers near the falling 100-hour moving average, but buyers broke through that resistance during yesterday’s trade and extended above the 200-hour moving average.</p><p>Those breaks shifted the near-term bias toward the buyers. The 100-hour moving average at 1.3338 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.33585 became support levels to watch on a correction.</p><p></p><p>Buyers reach the 200-day moving average</p><p>The rally gathered momentum today, with the price breaking above two additional hurdles:</p><ul><li><p>100-day moving average: 1.33857</p></li><li><p>50% midpoint of the decline from the August high: 1.34056</p></li></ul><p>Those breaks opened the door for a test of the 200-day moving average at 1.34277. The session high reached 1.3433, taking the price modestly above that longer-term barometer.</p><p>However, buyers could not sustain the break. Sellers leaned against the area, and the price rotated lower during the North American session.</p><p>That makes the 200-day moving average an important ceiling. Buyers reached a major target, but they still need to establish acceptance above it to strengthen the bullish case.</p><p>The pullback puts buyers to the test</p><p>The rotation lower has taken the price back below the 50% midpoint at 1.34056 and the 100-day moving average at 1.33857. Giving back those breaks takes some of the momentum out of the rally and gives sellers an opportunity to regain control.</p><p>The 1.33857 level becomes the immediate barometer. Staying below it would keep sellers in play and leave the 200-hour moving average at 1.33585 as the next downside target. Below that, the 100-hour moving average at 1.3338 would come into focus.</p><p>Conversely, a move back above 1.33857, followed by 1.34056, would help buyers steady the technical picture and put the 1.34277–1.3433 resistance area back in their sights.</p><p>The recovery from Wednesday’s low has cleared several important hurdles. The question now is how much of that technical progress buyers can defend.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior Month 0.0%</li></ul><p>Details of the Canada GDP for the month of August:</p><ul><li><p>August real GDP: 0.0% MoM. Prior 0.0%.</p></li><li><p>September advance estimate: -0.1% MoM.</p></li><li><p>Q3 preliminary growth indication: +0.3% QoQ, not annualized.</p></li><li><p>Breadth: 9 of 20 industrial sectors expanded in August.</p></li><li><p>Services-producing industries: -0.1%.</p></li><li><p>Goods-producing industries: +0.1%.</p></li></ul><p>Key August sector details:</p><ul><li><p>Retail trade: +1.2%, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers.</p></li><li><p>Manufacturing: +0.3%, supported by machinery and petroleum refining.</p></li><li><p>Wholesale trade: -1.4%, the largest drag on growth.</p></li><li><p>Public sector: -0.2%, partly reflecting the winding down of Census work.</p></li><li><p>Oil and gas extraction: -1.2%, its third consecutive monthly decline.</p></li><li><p>Utilities: -0.4%, weighed down by nuclear maintenance outages.</p></li></ul><p>Canada’s economy stalled for a second consecutive month in August, according to Statistics Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) by industry report. The softer detail came in the forward estimate: output is projected to have declined 0.1% in September, suggesting the economy lost momentum heading into the end of the third quarter. The industry-based figures point to 0.3% quarterly growth in Q3, subject to confirmation in the official quarterly release.</p><p>August’s flat headline masked considerable movement underneath. Retail trade rebounded 1.2%, more than reversing July’s contraction, while machinery production and a recovery in petroleum refining supported manufacturing. Those gains were offset by weaker wholesale trade, lower public-sector activity and another decline in oil and gas extraction. Auto production was particularly weak, with motor vehicles and parts manufacturing down 5.8% amid a prolonged summer plant shutdown.</p><p>Quick analysis: Two flat months followed by a projected decline suggest an economy struggling to build momentum. The retail rebound is encouraging, but growth was narrow, with fewer than half of industrial sectors expanding. Some weakness reflects maintenance outages, auto shutdowns and the winding down of Census activity, which limits how much can be attributed to softer underlying demand.</p><p>For the Bank of Canada, the growth figures could strengthen the case for easier policy if inflation allows. In isolation, weaker growth would normally weigh on Canadian yields and the Canadian dollar, creating an upward bias for USDCAD. The next checkpoint is November 30, when September GDP and the official Q3 income-and-expenditure estimates are released.</p><p>What this report measures: GDP by industry tracks inflation-adjusted production across Canada’s economy. Monthly changes show whether activity is expanding or contracting and which industries are driving it. The advance estimate is preliminary and subject to revision; the official quarterly income-and-expenditure report provides a separate measure of overall growth.</p><p>Looking at the USDCAD chart below, the price of the USDCAD moved lower with the USD, but after testing the 61.8% of the move up&nbsp; from the August low, is boucing modestly.&nbsp; &nbsp;That level comes in at 1.39497.&nbsp; The price, however, needs to get and stay above the high of the swing area at 1.3963 to give the dip buyers at the 61.8% some hope.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior quarter was +0.9%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Employment benefits +0.9% vs +1.0% prior quarter</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Employment wages +0.7% vs +0.9% prior quarter</li></ul><p>The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) increased by 0.8% q/q in the third quarter, with both wages and salaries and benefit costs contributing to the increase. Wages and salaries rose 0.7%, while benefit costs increased 0.9% compared with the previous quarter.</p><p>On an annual basis, total compensation costs for civilian workers increased by 3.4%, with wages and salaries rising 3.1% and benefit costs accelerating by 3.9%. The figures show that labour cost pressures remain relatively contained, although benefits continue to increase faster than wages.</p><p>Looking at private industry, compensation costs also increased by 0.8% q/q and 3.4% y/y. However, inflation-adjusted wages and salaries declined by 0.6% over the year, as nominal wage growth is still failing to keep pace with consumer price increases.&nbsp;The continued gap between nominal and inflation-adjusted wage growth also highlights the pressure households are facing from higher living costs.</p><p>For background, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that measures the change in the total cost of labor for businesses. The Fed considers the ECI the "gold standard" for measuring wage inflation because it is more precise and comprehensive, the only drawback is that it's not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data.</p><p></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="/news/what-is-spooking-markets-as-stocks-treasury-yields-and-gold-all-fall-ahead-of-european-trading" rel="follow">What is spooking markets as stocks, Treasury yields and gold all fall today?</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-gets-hit-again-by-forced-liquidations-as-equity-losses-mount-fundamental-outlook-increasingly-positive" rel="follow">Gold gets hit again by forced liquidations as equity losses mount; fundamental outlook increasingly positive</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/boj-governor-ueda-says-will-stick-to-rate-hike-path-in-response-to-latest-macro-developments" rel="follow">BOJ governor Ueda says will stick to rate hike path in response to latest macro developments</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/boj-governor-ueda-tries-to-play-down-inflation-victory-declaration-says-it-will-be-up-to-the-government-to-call-that" rel="follow">BOJ governor Ueda tries to play down inflation victory declaration, says it will be up to the government to call that</a></li><li><a href="/news/eurozone-q3-gdp-beats-expectations-but-the-growth-surprise-comes-with-a-catch" rel="follow">Eurozone Q3 GDP beats expectations but the growth surprise comes with a catch</a></li><li><a href="/news/germany-q3-preliminary-gdp-0-2-vs-0-1-q-q-expected" rel="follow">Germany Q3 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs +0.1% q/q expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/france-s-economy-contracts-in-q3-as-growth-troubles-pile-up-for-the-ecb" rel="follow">France's economy contracts in Q3 as growth troubles pile up for the ECB</a></li><li><a href="/news/spain-q3-gdp-growth-slows-slightly-but-it-s-the-inflation-problem-that-should-worry-the-ecb" rel="follow">Spain Q3 GDP growth slows slightly but it's the inflation problem that should worry the ECB</a></li><li><a href="/news/italy-q3-preliminary-gdp-0-0-vs-0-1-q-q-expected" rel="follow">Italy Q3 preliminary GDP +0.0% vs +0.1% q/q expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/german-state-inflation-cools-in-october-but-will-that-ease-the-ecb-s-headache" rel="follow">German state inflation cools in October, but will that ease the ECB's headache?</a></li><li><a href="/news/france-inflation-heats-up-again-in-october-leaving-the-ecb-caught-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place" rel="follow">France inflation heats up again in October, leaving the ECB caught between a rock and a hard place</a></li><li><a href="/news/spain-inflation-remains-stubbornly-high-near-5-as-the-ecb-headache-gets-worse" rel="follow">Spain inflation remains stubbornly high near 5% as the ECB headache gets worse</a></li><li><a href="/news/italy-october-preliminary-cpi-5-4-vs-4-6-y-y-expected" rel="follow">Italy October preliminary CPI +5.4% vs +4.6% y/y expected</a></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Markets:</p><ul><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">CHF and JPY lead, USD lags on the day</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">WTI crude oil up 2.2% to $104.25</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Gold down 1.2% to $3,971</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">10-year Treasury yield down 8 bps to 4.908%</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">European stocks mostly lower; Nasdaq futures -2.4%</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Bitcoin down 1.8% to $77,448</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It was a modestly eventful session as markets are trying to digest the coming and going of the central bank bonanza this week, but more so the renewed selloff in tech stocks.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Amazon earnings yesterday reignited AI spending fears and that is sending tech shares for a spin today, with US futures sinking even lower after the drop yesterday. S&amp;P 500 futures are down 1.1% with Nasdaq futures down 2.4% and the negative risk setup in reverberating across broader markets.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In a similar move to last week, traders appear to be leaning to bonds in the flight to safety as Treasury yields fall across the board once more. 10-year yields are down 8 bps to 4.908%, reaffirming that falling yields are not providing much comfort for the stock market at this juncture. That especially when <a href="https://investinglive.com/education/falling-treasury-yields-may-be-hiding-a-darker-story-about-the-ai-boom/" rel="follow">the reason for that has a lot more to do with jitters in tech stocks themselves</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Yes, Treasury yields are falling even as oil prices continue to stay underpinned with US-Iran tensions lingering. And that is pushing up WTI crude by over 2% to $104.25 on the day.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As the tech selloff intensifies, we are also seeing both the dollar and gold fall at the same time too. Investors are clearly running out of options to hide with EUR/USD nudging up to 1.1200 as inflation data across Europe also heats up on the day. While Germany is likely to show cooler price pressures in October, we are seeing stronger evidence of inflation in France, Spain, and Italy alongside flagging growth conditions from Q3 GDP data.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Gold is down 1.2% to $3,971 as sellers are making their move in dragging price to the lowest since July and testing a firmer break below the $4,000 mark. As tech shares come under heavy pressure, margin calls and liquidation fears are a consideration here and that might be hitting gold as it did back in March as well.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Looking to the final stretch of the week, it's all on how tech shares will hold up in Wall Street later today. If the selling gets even uglier from here, then those jitters will be what translates to broader markets before we get to the Halloween weekend. Have a good spooky holiday, everyone!</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior +4.2%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">HICP +5.6% vs +4.6% y/y expected</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior +4.2%</li></ul><p>Inflation accelerated sharply in October 2026, but the increase was primarily driven by energy prices, with both regulated and non-regulated energy products recording significant increases. Regulated energy inflation surged from 25.8% to 59.5% y/y, while non-regulated energy prices accelerated from 22.5% to 29.4%. Higher energy costs remain the dominant driver of the inflationary shock.</p><p>However, price pressures were not limited to energy. Unprocessed food inflation accelerated from 5.5% to 7.5%, while processed food prices also returned to positive annual growth. Services inflation picked up more modestly, rising to 2.9% from 2.6%, with transport-related services accelerating to 3.1%.</p><p>The goods component was particularly notable, with annual inflation jumping to 7.5% from 5.4%, while services inflation remained considerably more contained. This suggests that the latest acceleration is still heavily concentrated in goods and energy-related costs rather than reflecting an equally broad-based increase across the services sector.</p><p>Overall, the data points to significant inflationary shock in Italy, largely driven by surging energy costs but increasingly spilling over into food and transportation prices. </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected</li><li>Prior +0.6%</li><li>Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +1.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +1.2%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Well, well, well. Would you look at that. The euro area economy&nbsp;has managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat, delivering a better-than-expected Q3 GDP reading at first glance.&nbsp;But before we start popping the champagne, there's a catch or two worth considering when you look at the details.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">To start, quarterly growth did still slow down to 0.4% in the third quarter - down from 0.6% in the second quarter.&nbsp;So while the headline surprise is encouraging, the underlying momentum isn't quite as impressive as it might seem.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And when you drill deeper into the details, that is when things start to get a bit more interesting.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Of note,&nbsp;Ireland leads the pack with a whopping 5.5% quarterly expansion in Q3. Having said that, Ireland has a knack for&nbsp;notoriously volatile GDP figures in the past year and that always warrants some caution. The expansion here was primarily driven by strong activity in multinational-dominated industries, specifically information and communication and manufacturing.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For some context, Ireland's headline growth figure is often a distorted gauge of domestic economic health. That is because it is heavily influenced by contract manufacturing and global profits of multinational corporations that largely flow back to foreign shareholders rather than translating directly into local living standards.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Besides that,&nbsp;Spain continues to punch above its weight with 0.6% growth while the Netherlands also posted a respectable 0.6% increase.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Elsewhere though? The picture isn't so pretty.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Germany managed just 0.2% growth, Italy stagnated at 0.0%, and France even contracted by 0.1%. Now, that's hardly an endorsement of economic resilience across the biggest economies in the region.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, what does this mean for the ECB?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">We've seen inflation pressures heating up in France and Spain today even as the growth picture remains rather uneven. Meanwhile, German state inflation readings offered some relief but the broader concern remains that higher energy costs would eventually feed through to prices while weighing on economic activity.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And that is&nbsp;precisely the kind of stagflationary squeeze policymakers would want to avoid at this juncture.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So the real question now is&nbsp;whether the euro area can maintain its growth momentum as higher prices are going to squeeze households and businesses more and more in the months ahead. The latest report today might suggest that growth conditions are holding up a little bit better than feared, but whether that remains the case heading into Q4 will be a different story altogether.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The state readings released around the same time:</p><ul><li>Bavaria September CPI +2.8% vs +3.2% y/y prior</li><li>Saxony September CPI +2.9% vs +3.3% y/y prior</li><li>North Rhine Westphalia September CPI +2.7% vs +3.3% y/y prior</li><li>Baden Wuerttemberg September CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y prior</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">After the acceleration in September, headline inflation is seen cooling back a little in German states. While base effects are part of the reason, the re-implementation of specific energy tax reductions and fuel discounts enacted at the start of the month are arguably also playing a part here.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, that is leading to cooler price pressures overall but still relatively elevated when compared to the months before this.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Putting the estimates together, it offers an indication that German inflation is set to decline at the national level as well. Headline annual inflation is expected to drop to 3.0% in October from 3.3% last month, with the state readings above pointing to a&nbsp;modest likelihood that we might even see a reading below the 3% mark.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In any case, just&nbsp;keep in mind though that the state readings aren't a perfect proxy for the national figure. There can still be some deviation when the preliminary numbers are released later.&nbsp;However, they have historically been a useful gauge and today's readings arguably point to some downside risk to the 3.0% consensus, with a national CPI reading around 2.9% now looking quite plausible.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For the ECB, the readings here will just complicate things further as the economic backdrop is reflecting flagging growth conditions amid the risk of price pressures accelerating further. While German inflation may not have jumped in October, there are signs elsewhere that inflation is starting to spread more broadly as seen with France and Spain earlier.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, that will just keep the pressure on policymakers to act again in December while having to consider if doing too much could risk sending the euro area economy over the edge.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior +0.2%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">GDP Y/Y +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior +1.0%</li></ul><p>Italy's economy unexpectedly stalled in the third quarter of 2026, with GDP remaining unchanged q/q, following 0.2% growth in the previous quarter. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.8%, pointing to a relatively modest pace of economic expansion.</p><p>On the supply side, services and agriculture provided positive contributions to growth, while industrial activity declined. The weakness in industry remains a concern, particularly given the sector's importance to Italy's export-oriented economy.</p><p>On the demand side, domestic demand, including changes in inventories, supported economic activity, while net foreign demand acted as a drag. This suggests that domestic spending continues to provide some resilience, but external demand and trade flows remain a source of weakness.</p><p>The carry-over growth rate for 2026 stands at 0.8% on a calendar-adjusted basis. This means that even if GDP remains unchanged in the fourth quarter, annual growth would still be around 0.8%, although the final annual figure may differ due to the three additional working days in 2026 compared with 2025.</p><p>The report is mildly negative for the growth outlook. The stagnation in quarterly GDP, combined with industrial weakness and a negative contribution from net exports, highlights structural growth challenges. Domestic demand remains the main source of resilience, but the economy is still struggling to generate broader-based growth.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +0.3%</li><li>GDP Y/Y +1.2% vs 1.1% expected</li><li>Prior +1.0%</li></ul><p>Germany's economy expanded by 0.2% q/q in the third quarter of 2026, according to preliminary data from Destatis, extending the recovery seen in the first half of the year. GDP increased by 1.3% y/y in price-adjusted terms, or 1.2% when adjusted for both prices and calendar effects.</p><p>However, the underlying details point to a loss of momentum, with the recovery becoming increasingly uneven. Consumer spending made a modest positive contribution, suggesting that domestic demand is holding up, but investment declined, highlighting continued weakness in business activity.</p><p>Meanwhile, exports, which provided a significant boost to growth during the first half of the year, lost momentum in Q3. This is particularly relevant for Germany, given its heavy reliance on external demand and the importance of its manufacturing and export sectors.</p><p>Overall, the report suggests that Germany's economic recovery is losing some steam. Growth is still positive, although the weaker performance of investment and exports raises questions about how sustainable the recovery will be heading into the final quarter of the year considering all the headwinds from tightening financial conditions and geopolitical shocks.</p><p></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected</li><li>Prior +0.7%</li><li>Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +2.6%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It is the preliminary report, so there aren't much details to work with here besides the headline figures above.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The quarterly figure does show a bit of a slowdown in Spanish economic growth in the third quarter, albeit marginally. And among the bigger names in the euro area, Spain is still very much punching above its weight in carrying the more optimistic banner for the region.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The only issue is that <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/spain-inflation-remains-stubbornly-high-near-5-as-the-ecb-headache-gets-worse/" rel="follow">inflation pressures in Spain is also starting to get out of hand</a>. Headline annual inflation is bordering on 5% in October with core annual inflation holding above 3%. Those numbers are way beyond what the ECB would be comfortable with, running above their 2% price target.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The Spanish GDP report here isn't something to spook markets. But a mild slowdown if coupled with troubling performances in France and perhaps Germany later, that could really ramp up talk of stagflation risks in the euro area especially when paired with the inflation numbers today.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Traders might still lean more favourably on inflation risks prompting the ECB to act in December. But if growth conditions continue to suffer, it might only be a matter of time before the narrative shifts and the focus turns to stagflation risks instead. So, just be wary of that.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Spain October preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +4.9%</li><li>Spain October preliminary HICP +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +5.0%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Spanish inflation continues to hover around 5% in October, as the preliminary estimates continue to paint a rather uncomfortable picture for the most part. Headline annual inflation remains steady at 4.9% while the&nbsp;harmonised reading eased marginally to 4.9% as well. So, that's not saying a lot after the run higher in the past few months amid&nbsp;a surge energy prices due to the Middle East conflict.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And with higher oil prices continuing to stick, that will certainly add to the inflation headache in Q4.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Looking at the details, core annual inflation is seen at 3.1% - unchanged compared to September. But at this level, it is still well above what the ECB would be comfortable with as price pressures continue to pull away from the 2% target.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Alongside the earlier report from France, this just continues to reaffirm that the inflation monster is getting bigger and more threatening for the central bank. But at the same time, flagging economic growth conditions will just mean that stagflation risks are also on the rise.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, that is quite a troubling spot for policymakers to be in as they have to try and deal with price pressures before they get out of hand while avoiding sending the broader economy off a cliff. Tough.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>France October preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.2% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +3.1%</li><li>France October preliminary HICP +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +3.4%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">French inflation is seen accelerating again in October, as the preliminary estimates show headline annual inflation climbing to its highest since December 2023. Yowza.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The main culprit is once again energy prices, as that continues to fuel much of the headline price increase. No pun intended. Of note, energy price inflation was up 24.1% annually in October compared to 21.3% in the month before.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The detailed breakdown shows food price inflation softening slightly to 1.2% in October but services inflation is seen picking up further to 2.7% from 2.4% in the month before. The latter is a real issue as it signals that higher energy prices are starting to spill over more broadly, and that will in turn feed into core inflation as well.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It's not a good look if you're the ECB. France is already struggling economically, not to mention with fiscal headwinds growing stronger by the day. And with inflation pressures starting to heat up as well, that is making for a very stagflationary outlook for Europe's second-largest economy.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For the central bank, this is their biggest issue and risk to tightening policy further. That is especially the case as French bonds are also coming under heavy pressure amid fiscal worries and that could threaten to blow over to the rest of the euro area as well.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It's really a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't for the ECB.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we get lots of Eurozone data but the main highlights will be the inflation reports for France, Spain and Germany. We have also the Eurozone GDP report but the focus will likely be on inflation, as the ECB signalled yesterday that it's prepared to raise rates in December if the inflation outlook does not improve. </p><p>Therefore, inflation data (especially core inflation) and the Middle East develpments will be key. At the moment, the market is pricing a 64% probability of a rate hike December.&nbsp;</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we get the Canadian monthly GDP and the US Employment Cost Index for Q3. The ECI is&nbsp;the most comprehensive report on wage growth and the Fed watches it closely. The only drawback is that it's not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data.&nbsp;The ECI is expected to tick lower to 0.8% vs 0.9% prior. A significant upside surprise could start challenging subdued wage growth narrative.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>The Canadian GDP is expected at 0.2% vs 0.0% prior, but it's unlikely to change much for the Bank of Canada as the central bank leant on the cautious side with its forward guidance despite upgrading growth and inflation projections. Overall, the Canadian data isn't pointing to the extended tightening cycle that the market is pricing in.&nbsp;</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - Fed's Daly (neutral - non voter)</li><li>16:10 GMT/12:10 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)</li><li>16:30 GMT/12:30 ET - Fed's Musalem (hawkish - non voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Germany September import prices +2.1% vs +1.8% m/m expected</li><li>Prior +1.0%</li><li>Germany September import prices +10.4% vs +10.3% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +8.3%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Just when Germany thought it had enough economic headaches to deal with, here's another one to add to the pile. This time, the inflation monster is making quite the comeback through the back door.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">German import prices for September are seen rosing at their fastest annual pace since November 2022, with the monthly increase also coming in hotter than expected.&nbsp;And surprise, surprise. Not. It is energy that is once again doing much of the damage.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Imported energy prices surged by a whopping 61.8% compared to a year ago, with electricity prices almost doubling (+96.2%) compared to the year before. The US-Iran conflict is definitely leaving its mark on Germany's import bill and businesses aren't exactly getting much breathing room elsewhere either.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Prices for intermediate goods&nbsp;rose 11.1% annually, including a 37.9% increase in copper and 23.4% rise in aluminium. And even if you strip out energy prices, import prices were still up by 5.5% year-on-year in September.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, what does this tell us?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">To start, the details suggest that&nbsp;Germany's imported inflation problem isn't just about expensive oil and gas prices. Higher input costs are spreading across industrial supply chains and that could potentially squeeze manufacturers' margins at a time when the economy can ill afford another setback.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And this also spells trouble for the ECB. Now, import prices aren't the same as consumer prices of course. However,&nbsp;sustained increases in energy and production costs could eventually filter through to households, depending on how much businesses can pass those costs along.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">All in all, this will just be another anecdote in reaffirming&nbsp;the prospects of another ECB rate hike in December - especially with markets already pricing in roughly 61% odds of such a move at this juncture.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>France Q3 preliminary GDP -0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected</li><li>Prior 0.0%</li><li>France Q3 preliminary GDP % vs +0.3% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +0.5%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Ouch. That's a notable miss as French GDP shrinks in Q3 this year. That follows from the&nbsp;stagnation in Q2 and a 0.2% contraction in Q1, not&nbsp;exactly the sort of economic performance one would hope for from Europe's second-largest economy.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Looking at the breakdown, household consumption actually improved in rising to 0.4% from 0.2% previously.&nbsp;However, investment remained a major weak spot in falling by 0.6% after a 0.5% decline in the quarter before this.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The big drag came from exports, slumping by 1.7% and reversing&nbsp;a 2.8% increase in the previous quarter.&nbsp;That saw net trade subtract 0.6% from growth, although inventory changes provided a 0.4% cushion and domestic demand added the final 0.1%.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, what does this mean for the ECB?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Well, the latest figures&nbsp;highlight an economy that is largely struggling amid weak investment and soft external demand.&nbsp;And with France already facing significant fiscal challenges, there's limited room for government spending to provide much support.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, that doesn't really change all too much for the central bank as much of this sentiment is already captured by the bond market.&nbsp;The French numbers will strengthen the argument for caution on further tightening, although policymakers will remain more concerned about price stability at the balance.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But if&nbsp;similar weakness starts showing up elsewhere in the euro area, then the case for further rate hikes will become more and more difficult to justify heading into next year.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It looks like Halloween is coming a day early for markets with investors getting quite the fright already as we look to wrap up the trading week. Both stocks and Treasury yields are falling together, with gold also struggling to catch a bid. That's a rather spooky combination to deal with.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, what exactly is driving markets into this scary situation?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Well, the latest earnings from Amazon overnight have only added another skeleton to the closet after the company's massive AI spending bill overshadowed impressive cloud growth. Amazon shares are down 7% in after-hours trading, and that follows from the beating that tech shares took yesterday after Alphabet reignited fears of AI spending in the day before.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">US futures are being dragged sharply lower today, with Nasdaq futures down 1.8% currently. And that is&nbsp;setting up a rather ominous backdrop ahead of European trading today.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But beyond the selling in tech, there's something else about the broader market moves worth noting. Why are Treasury yields continuing to fall when inflation risks remain elevated? And why exactly aren't lower yields doing much to offer support for tech stocks?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Perhaps the answer lies in <a href="https://investinglive.com/education/falling-treasury-yields-may-be-hiding-a-darker-story-about-the-ai-boom/" rel="follow">the darker story brewing beneath the AI boom</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For all the excitement surrounding AI technology, investors are starting to question just how much money companies need to throw at it before seeing meaningful returns. And Alphabet and Amazon's latest results this week are hardly going to put those worries to bed.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And as <a href="https://investinglive.com/education/connecting-the-dots-why-are-treasury-yields-falling-as-ai-credit-risks-rise/" rel="follow">AI credit risks continue to attract scrutiny</a>, falling Treasury yields may be telling us something about investors seeking safety rather than celebrating lower borrowing costs.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As for gold, the inability for the precious metal to capitalise on the negative risk mood adds another twist to the overall picture. That could reflect month-end positioning or even <a href="https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/chart-of-the-day-gold-price-hangs-by-a-thread-at-4-000-as-bond-market-risks-loom/" rel="follow">liquidity pressures</a> as stocks are being hurt badly while the bond market is responding more to safety flows rather than inflation risks. The latter is still very much in play as oil prices continue to stay more elevated this week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, where does that leave us ahead of European trading today?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It's a rather poor risk backdrop overall and one that could get uglier at any point in time. For me, I'd be watching&nbsp;whether the tech selloff spills over into broader equities more profoundly and whether Treasury yields will continue to fall alongside stocks. The latter will be a particularly worrying sight for broader markets if so.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As things stand, the real fright&nbsp;for markets may not be that the AI boom is running out of steam but that investors are finally starting to question the price of keeping it all going.</p><blockquote style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">"It's all a fugazi. It's a wazi. It's a woozy. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not real."</blockquote><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Said nobody. ;)</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/central-banks/boj-declares-underlying-inflation-at-2-target-lifts-fy2027-price-forecast-as-rates-held" rel="follow">BoJ declares underlying inflation at 2% target, lifts FY2027 price forecast as rates held</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/boj-keeps-policy-rate-unchanged-at-1-25-as-expected" rel="follow">BoJ keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, as expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/some-good-news-treasuries-rally-as-ai-selloff-drives-flight-to-safety-10-year-yield-at-one-month-low" rel="follow">(Some good news!) Treasuries rally as AI selloff drives flight to safety, 10-year yield at one-month low</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/amazon-and-intel-results-deepen-worries-over-ai-boom-costs-as-tech-chip-stocks-slide" rel="follow">Amazon and Intel results deepen worries over AI boom costs as tech, chip stocks slide</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-6-7183-vs-estimate-at-6-6548" rel="follow">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7138 (vs. estimate at 6.6548)</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/chainalysis-estimates-5-9b-stolen-in-suspected-binance-hack-nearly-4-times-bybit" rel="follow">Chainalysis estimates $5.9B stolen in suspected Binance hack, nearly 4 times Bybit</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/binance-halts-deposits-and-withdrawals-pledges-to-cover-all-losses-from-suspected-hack" rel="follow">Binance halts deposits and withdrawals, pledges to cover all losses from suspected hack</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/ukraine-reportedly-pauses-strikes-on-russian-refineries-after-us-pressure" rel="follow">Ukraine reportedly pauses strikes on Russian refineries after US pressure</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/vessel-on-fire-in-strait-of-hormuz-after-incident-near-oman-cause-unknown-lol" rel="follow">Vessel on fire in Strait of Hormuz after incident near Oman, cause "unknown" (LOL)</a></li><li><a href="/news/japan-september-factory-output-beats-forecasts-but-retail-sales-disappoint-ahead-of-boj" rel="follow">Japan September factory output beats forecasts, but retail sales disappoint ahead of BoJ</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/anz-lifts-year-end-brent-forecast-to-105-as-tight-physical-market-persists" rel="follow">ANZ lifts year-end Brent forecast to $105 as tight physical market persists</a></li><li><a href="/news/tokyo-october-cpi-2-8-2-7-expected" rel="follow">Tokyo October CPI 2.8% (2.7% expected)</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/binance-pauses-withdrawals-after-suspected-3b-hack-as-tether-circle-freeze-2-4b" rel="follow">Binance pauses withdrawals after suspected $3B+ hack as Tether, Circle freeze $2.4B</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/nvidia-in-talks-to-guarantee-nscale-debt-tied-to-45-billion-anthropic-compute-deal" rel="follow">Nvidia in talks to guarantee Nscale debt tied to $45 billion Anthropic compute deal</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-sees-one-final-sell-off-before-us-stock-correction-ends" rel="follow">Morgan Stanley’s Wilson sees one final sell-off before US stock correction ends</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/rba-set-for-back-to-back-hike-after-hot-cpi-says-natixis-garcia-herrero" rel="follow">RBA set for back-to-back hike after hot CPI, says Natixis’ Garcia Herrero</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ing-lifts-aud-usd-target-to-0-71-as-it-backs-a-25bp-rba-hike-next-week" rel="follow">ING lifts AUD/USD target to 0.71 as it backs a 25bp RBA hike next week</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-to-hike-once-more-in-december-as-tighter-conditions-may-not-suffice-deutsche-bank" rel="follow">ECB to hike once more in December as tighter conditions may not suffice: Deutsche Bank</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/intel-earnings-call-18a-progress-and-data-centre-growth-offset-by-pc-slump-and-cash-burn" rel="follow">Intel earnings call: 18A progress and data centre growth offset by PC slump and cash burn</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/binance-appears-hacked-cz-says-as-tether-and-circle-freeze-1-79b-in-stablecoins" rel="follow">Binance appears hacked, CZ says, as Tether and Circle freeze $1.79B in stablecoins</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/tether-freezes-971m-usdt-amid-suspected-binance-hack-as-crypto-sells-off" rel="follow">Tether freezes $971M USDT amid suspected Binance hack as crypto sells off</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/earnings-bloodbath-intel-crashes-over-22-amazon-over-12-what-s-coming-next" rel="follow">Earnings bloodbath: Intel crashes over 22%, Amazon over 12%. What's coming next?</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/intel-shares-tumble-around-15-the-narrative-is-weak-q4-guidance-overshadows-q3-profit-beat" rel="follow">Intel shares tumble around 15%. The narrative is --&gt; weak Q4 guidance overshadows Q3 profit beat</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/nasdaq-leads-stocks-lower-intel-and-amazon-tumble-after-hours" rel="follow">Nasdaq leads stocks lower; Intel and Amazon tumble after hours</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-ecb-holds-sources-report-says-december-hike" rel="follow">investingLive Americas market news wrap: ECB holds, sources report says December hike</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Equities: Asian stocks fell after weak Amazon and Intel results deepened concern over AI costs. The KOSPI fell 4.9% after a sidecar halted programme trading, and the Nikkei lost 2.5%, while the Hang Seng rose 1.4%.</li><li>Bonds: US Treasuries rallied, taking the 10-year yield to around 4.90%, a one-month low.</li><li>BoJ: The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with Takata seeking a hike. It said underlying inflation is consistent with its 2% target and will more than double ETF sales from 2027. The yen firmed modestly.</li><li>Oil: Prices rose after a vessel fire in the Strait of Hormuz, but gains were capped by diplomatic hopes. Ukraine has reportedly paused refinery strikes.</li><li>Crypto: Binance suspended deposits and withdrawals after a suspected hack and pledged to cover losses. About $2.5 billion has been frozen. BNB fell 8.6% and bitcoin dropped to near $77,700.</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Asian equities fell sharply on Friday, led by South Korea, as disappointing results from Amazon and Intel deepened concern over the cost of the artificial intelligence boom. A suspected hack at cryptocurrency exchange Binance rattled digital asset markets, and the Bank of Japan signalled growing confidence that inflation has reached its target.</p><p dir="ltr">South Korea bore the brunt of the selling. The Korea Exchange activated a sidecar on the KOSPI after KOSPI 200 futures fell 5%, halting programme trading for five minutes. The KOSPI closed down 4.9% and the KOSDAQ lost 4.3%. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.5% and China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.8%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucked the trend to rise 1.4%. US equity index futures also traded lower in Globex trade.</p><p dir="ltr">The pressure stemmed from US earnings released after Thursday’s close. Amazon shares fell about 7% in after-hours trading after it forecast holiday-quarter sales below expectations. Intel dropped around 18% after issuing weak fourth-quarter guidance and warning of falling PC demand. The selling spread to AI cloud providers, PC makers and chipmakers. US Treasuries rallied as investors sought safety, with the 10-year yield falling to around 4.90%, its lowest in more than a month.</p><p dir="ltr">In Japan, the Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of a hike to 1.5%. In its quarterly Outlook Report, the central bank said underlying inflation is now generally consistent with its 2% target. It described risks to prices as skewed to the upside and raised its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2027 to 2.6%. It also agreed to more than double the pace of its ETF sales from January 2027. The yen firmed modestly after the announcement. Earlier, Tokyo core inflation for October came in at 2.6%, in line with forecasts. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference later in the day will be watched for signals on a December hike.</p><p dir="ltr">Oil prices rose after a vessel caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz following an incident northeast of Oman, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency, which said the cause was unknown. Gains were limited by renewed hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict following a letter from Vane. The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine has paused strikes on Russian oil refineries after pressure from the US. Meanwhile, there has been unconfirmed speculation that US President Donald Trump could resume military action against Iran after next week’s midterm elections. Separately, ANZ raised its year-end Brent forecast to $105 a barrel.</p><p dir="ltr">In crypto markets, Binance suspended all deposits and withdrawals after a suspected hack in which on-chain data showed billions of dollars leaving its hot wallets across several blockchains. Estimates of the outflows have ranged from about $2 billion to more than $3 billion. Co-founder Changpeng Zhao said the exchange appeared to have been hacked and that user funds were safe, and Binance pledged to cover all losses. It said about $2.5 billion has been frozen, but gave no figure for losses or a timeline for reopening.</p><p dir="ltr">Stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle moved quickly to freeze tokens linked to the outflows, acting within about 40 minutes of the drains beginning, according to reports. More than $1 billion, mostly ether, was reported to be beyond reach. Binance’s BNB token fell 8.6% to near $694 and bitcoin slipped to around $77,700.&nbsp;</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">Lower Treasury yields ease financing costs across the curve, offering some relief to rate-sensitive sectors and to the AI firms whose borrowing has worried investors. That makes the bond rally partly self-correcting for the very stress that triggered it. A softer dollar supports Asian currencies and commodities priced in dollars. Oil remains the main threat to the rally: with Brent heading for a fourth straight monthly gain, any escalation in the Iran conflict could quickly revive inflation fears and push yields back up. The BoJ decision later today is the next test, and a hawkish surprise could firm the yen against a softer dollar.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Oil is higher:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/vessel-on-fire-in-strait-of-hormuz-after-incident-near-oman-cause-unknown-lol" target="_blank" rel="follow">Vessel on fire in Strait of Hormuz after incident near Oman, cause "unknown" (LOL)</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">Stocks slammed:</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0"><a target="_self" class="article-link" href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/earnings-bloodbath-intel-crashes-over-22-amazon-over-12-what-s-coming-next/" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0; color: rgba(140, 77, 223, 1); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.3s" rel="follow">Earnings bloodbath: Intel crashes over 22%, Amazon over 12%. What's coming next?</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">$6bn stolen in a hack:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/chainalysis-estimates-5-9b-stolen-in-suspected-binance-hack-nearly-4-times-bybit" target="_blank" rel="follow">Chainalysis estimates $5.9B stolen in suspected Binance hack, nearly 4 times Bybit</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">But ... at least Treasuries are bouncing!</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">The AI selloff finally gave bond investors something to cheer, though with oil still climbing and central banks still hawkish, the celebration may be brief.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.90% and the 30-year to about 5.26%, both one-month lows</li><li>The rally was driven by safe-haven buying amid renewed selling in AI stocks after Alphabet, Amazon and Intel results</li><li>Strategists noted that AI concerns lowered yields and softened the dollar, unlike energy-driven risk-off episodes</li><li>The dollar index edged down to around 101.8 but is on track for a second straight monthly gain</li><li>The yen held near 157.8 ahead of the BoJ, with about an 80% chance of a December hike priced</li><li>ANZ’s Khoon Goh sees this week’s central bank pauses as temporary, with more hikes possible in 2027</li></ul><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">US Treasuries rallied as a fresh wave of selling in artificial intelligence stocks sent investors in search of safety, Reuters reported on Friday. The rally pushed benchmark yields to their lowest levels in more than a month and weighed on the US dollar.</p><p dir="ltr">The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to around 4.90%, while the 30-year yield dropped to about 5.26%, both at more than one-month lows. Bond yields move inversely to prices, so the declines reflect strong buying of US government debt.</p><p dir="ltr">The rally was triggered by renewed concern over the cost of the AI boom. Results from Alphabet earlier in the week revived worries about AI spending and pulled broader stock markets lower. Disappointing results from Amazon and Intel after Thursday’s close added to the pressure. As equities sold off, safe-haven bonds became more attractive.</p><p dir="ltr">Strategists noted that the pattern differed from recent bouts of market stress. An energy-driven risk-off episode would typically lift the dollar and push yields higher. This time, one Singapore-based strategist said, the US-focused AI concerns came with lower Treasury yields and a softer or subdued dollar. That suggests investors are treating the AI selloff as a US growth and earnings risk rather than an inflation shock.</p><p dir="ltr">The lower yields weighed on the greenback. The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of major peers, edged down to around 101.8, although it remained on course for a second consecutive monthly gain.</p><p dir="ltr">Elsewhere in currency markets, the yen was steady near 157.8 per dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. The central bank is expected to hold rates at 1.25% with a hawkish tone, and markets are pricing about an 80% chance of a hike in December. The euro was flat near $1.12 after touching its lowest level since May 2025 in the previous session. The Australian dollar held around $0.70, on track for a 1.2% gain in October.</p><p dir="ltr">The relief for bond markets may prove limited. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand all held rates steady this week, but have signalled their tightening cycles are not over, with energy prices near multi-month highs. Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ, described the current pauses as temporary. He said the risk heading into 2027 is that elevated inflation could bring even more hikes. Brent crude is on track for its fourth straight monthly gain, the longest run in more than two years.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">The data give the BoJ evidence on both sides, so the reaction in the yen and Japanese government bonds is likely to be modest ahead of the policy decision and Outlook Report later in the day. Stronger output and upbeat production plans support Japanese industrials and exporters. Softer retail sales could weigh on consumer-facing stocks if the weakness persists. The production upgrade suggests manufacturers are looking through high energy costs for now, but further gains in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict would squeeze margins and household spending power at the same time.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/tokyo-october-cpi-2-8-2-7-expected" target="_blank" rel="follow">Tokyo October CPI 2.8% (2.7% expected)</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">Still to come:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/boj-preview-hold-at-1-25-expected-with-2-inflation-call-and-dissent-risk-in-focus" target="_blank" rel="follow">BoJ preview: hold at 1.25% expected, with 2% inflation call and dissent risk in focus</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Japan’s factories are firing up while its shoppers are holding back, leaving the BoJ with one more mixed signal on a crowded morning.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>September industrial output rose 2.2% m/m, beating the 1.3% forecast, after a 2.4% drop in August</li><li>Output rose 1.9% y/y, slower than the prior 2.7%</li><li>Manufacturers expect output to rise 5.1% in October (previously forecast at 3.1%) and 0.8% in November</li><li>Retail sales fell 0.7% m/m, a second straight monthly decline</li><li>Retail sales rose 2.3% y/y, short of the 3.3% expected and down from 2.9%</li><li>The data land ahead of the BoJ decision, with a hold at 1.25% expected</li></ul><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">Japan’s factory output rebounded more strongly than expected in September, but retail sales fell short of forecasts. That gives the Bank of Japan a mixed picture of the economy just hours before it announces its policy decision on Friday.</p><p dir="ltr">Industrial production rose 2.2% from August, well ahead of the median forecast for a 1.3% gain in a Reuters poll, and reversed much of the 2.4% drop recorded the previous month. Compared with a year earlier, output was up 1.9%, slower than the 2.7% annual pace in August.</p><p dir="ltr">The outlook from manufacturers was notably upbeat. Companies surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect seasonally adjusted output to jump 5.1% in October, a sharp upgrade from the 3.1% increase they had forecast a month earlier, before rising a further 0.8% in November. If those plans are met, factory activity would gain considerable momentum heading into the final weeks of the year, although manufacturers’ forecasts are often revised once actual production data are released.</p><p dir="ltr">Consumer spending was weaker. Retail sales fell 0.7% in September from August, a second consecutive monthly decline following a 1.2% drop in August. On an annual basis, sales rose 2.3%, short of the 3.3% expected and below the prior month’s 2.9% pace.</p><p dir="ltr">The split between strong production and softer spending is likely to feature in the central bank’s assessment. Policymakers are widely expected to keep the policy rate at 1.25% later on Friday, with markets focused on whether the board signals a hike in December. Robust output and a firm upgrade to production plans would support the view that the economy can withstand further tightening. Slowing retail sales, on the other hand, point to pressure on household budgets from higher prices.</p><p dir="ltr">The figures land on the same morning as Tokyo inflation data that showed core consumer prices in line with expectations. The BoJ’s quarterly Outlook Report, due later in the day, will show how policymakers weigh the latest signals on growth and inflation.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">Tokyo CPI, October (y/y)</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Headline: 2.8% vs. 2.7% expected (prior 2.7%)</li><li>Core (ex fresh food): 2.6% vs. 2.6% expected (prior 2.7%)</li><li>Ex fresh food and energy: 2.4% vs. 2.7% expected (prior 2.7%)</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Labour market, September</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Unemployment rate: 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected (prior 2.5%)</li><li>Jobs-to-applicants ratio: 1.19 vs. 1.18 expected (prior 1.18)</li></ul><p>Just the data this post, I'll have more to come on this separately.&nbsp;</p><p>Background:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/tokyo-cpi-preview-core-inflation-seen-at-2-6-as-boj-weighs-december-hike" target="_blank" rel="follow">Tokyo CPI preview: core inflation seen at 2.6% as BoJ weighs December hike</a></li></ul><p>Still to come:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/boj-preview-hold-at-1-25-expected-with-2-inflation-call-and-dissent-risk-in-focus" target="_blank" rel="follow">BoJ preview: hold at 1.25% expected, with 2% inflation call and dissent risk in focus</a></li></ul><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/news/iran-s-ghalibaf-progress-can-only-be-achieved-once-the-seven-conditions-have-been-agreed-upon" rel="follow">Iran's Ghalibaf: Progress can only be achieved once the seven conditions have been agreed upon</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-iran-war-will-be-over-very-soon" rel="follow">Trump: Iran war will be over very soon. Senator warns of 'insane' US plans</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-sources-report-policymakers-see-a-december-rate-hike-followed-by-a-pause" rel="follow">ECB sources report: Policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/lagarde-growth-should-be-underpinned-in-the-near-term" rel="follow">Lagarde: Growth should be underpinned in the near term</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-rate-decision" rel="follow">ECB rate decision: No change in rates</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-194k-vs-199k-expected" rel="follow">US initial jobless claims 194K vs 199K expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-september-pce-core-inflation-m-m-vs-0-3-expected" rel="follow">US September PCE core inflation +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-gdp-advance-for-the-3rd-quarter-3-4-vs-3-2-estimate" rel="follow">US GDP Advance for the 3rd quarter 3.4% vs 3.2% estimate</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil down 46-0cetns to $102.32</li><li>US 10-year yields down 6.3 bps to 4.98%</li><li>GBP leads, AUD lags</li><li>Gold down $44 to $4022</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 1.4%</li></ul><p>The ECB decision to hold rates wasn't a surprise but the commentary overall had a hawkish bent, as Lagarde highlighted some flow-through from energy inflation. That was trumped by the usual 'ECB sources' reporting that flagged a December hike but said they would pause after that. The euro bounced around but ultimately reversed earlier losses to finish modestly higher.</p><p>On the Iran front, a US Senator on the foreign relations committee warned of 'insane' war plans that are being drawn up to attack civilian infrastructure. That reversed some oil selling along with various other reports about attacks, compounded by Iran attacks on ships near Hormuz and Houthie attacks on Saudi facilities.</p><p>In the stock market, the big loser was Alphabet, down 12.5% after earnings on signs that AI is eating into search. Despite that, the Nasdaq was only down 1.3% and the S&amp;P 500 down just 0.3%. One big boost came from Eli Lilly, which rose 6.5% to a record after strong weight-loss results. Advancers also substantially outnumbered decliners and the Russell 2000 rose 0.7%, perhaps as the market determines that the FOMC was less-hawkish than expected.</p><p>After hours through, it was brutal earnings reaction for Intel and Amazon, both down double digits on the earnings headlines. That's led to a decline in futures.</p><p>RIP Patrick Stewart</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Trump has said this at least 100 times since the war started in late February. He is an improviser, not a planner. Since it all went sideways, he has been looking for an elegant exit but can't find one. The blockade may be giving him some leverage but the pain of higher oil prices is making it an extremely unpopular war.</p><p>Meanwhile,&nbsp;the UKMTO reports that a tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile whilst completing an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. There are no reported injuries to the crew or environmental impact report at this time. </p><p>The status quo can't continue indefinitely so it will either be escalation or negotiation. It looks like the US will now wait until after the midterms to attack, though some are speculating later in November when another aircraft&nbsp;carrier arrives.</p><p>Oil product prices remain at sky high levels while crude oil is down 79 cents to $101.98 today.</p><p>Here is an ominous message from Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy (D), who&nbsp;is also a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and sits on the defense appropriations subcommittee:</p><blockquote>Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election. Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane. It will not achieve objectives and will set off a new cycle of escalation.</blockquote><p>That's certainly ominous. He went onto say that it would undermine the US commitment to&nbsp;rule of law and would include attacks on civilian infrastructure.</p><p>"I will just say this - their plan is insane ...it will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law. There has been open reporting as to the civilian infrastructure we may be targeting…. I think the plan they have developed will lead in my view to a prolongment and escalation of this war that will be devastating to our security interests"</p><p>The leaks suggest attacks on:</p><ul><li><p>Electricity generation and transmission facilities</p></li><li><p>Bridges and transportation networks</p></li><li><p>Oil refineries and energy infrastructure</p></li><li><p>Potentially other infrastructure essential to civilian life</p></li></ul> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.